The co-circulation of two infectious diseases and the impact of vaccination against one of them

•An epidemic model for co-circulating pathogens is proposed.•The model is formulated in terms of probabilistic cellular automaton.•One of the two pathogens causes immunosuppression, but there is vaccine against it.•The relation between vaccination coverage and immunosuppression level is examined.•Th...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Ecological complexity 2021-09, Vol.47, p.100941-100941, Article 100941
Main Authors: Puga, G.F., Monteiro, L.H.A.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Co-circulating infections
COVID-19
Immunosuppression
Measles
Original
Probabilistic cellular automaton
Vaccination
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Summary:•An epidemic model for co-circulating pathogens is proposed.•The model is formulated in terms of probabilistic cellular automaton.•One of the two pathogens causes immunosuppression, but there is vaccine against it.•The relation between vaccination coverage and immunosuppression level is examined.•The impact of vaccination on morbidity and mortality is evaluated. An epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton is proposed to investigate the dynamics of two co-circulating infections. In the model, one of these two diseases compromises the immune response to future infections; however, there is vaccine against this immunosuppressive disease. The goal is to evaluate the impact of the vaccination coverage on the prevalence and on the cumulative deaths associated with both contagious diseases. The performed numerical simulations highlight the importance of vaccination on decreasing morbidity and mortality. The results are discussed from a public health standpoint, by taking into account outbreaks of measles and COVID-19.
ISSN:1476-945X
1476-945X
DOI:10.1016/j.ecocom.2021.100941