TOP: Time-to-Event Bayesian Optimal Phase II Trial Design for Cancer Immunotherapy

• Published in: JNCI : Journal of the National Cancer Institute 2020-01, Vol.112 (1), p.38-45
• Main Authors: Lin, Ruitao, Coleman, Robert L, Yuan, Ying
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Bayesian analysis; Cancer; Cancer immunotherapy; Decision making; Design; Immunotherapy
• ISSN: 0027-8874; 1460-2105
• DOI: 10.1093/jnci/djz049

Abstract Background Immunotherapies have revolutionized cancer treatment. Unlike chemotherapies, immune agents often take longer to show benefit, and the complex and unique mechanism of action of these agents renders the use of multiple endpoints more appropriate in some trials. These new features of immunotherapy make conventional phase II trial designs, which assume a single binary endpoint that is quickly ascertainable, inefficient and dysfunctional. Methods We propose a flexible and efficient time-to-event Bayesian optimal phase II (TOP) design. The TOP design is efficient in that it allows real-time “go/no-go” interim decision making in the presence of late-onset responses by using all available data and maximizes statistical power for detecting effective treatments. TOP is flexible in the number of interim looks and capable of handling simple and complicated endpoints under a unified framework. We conduct simulation studies to evaluate the operating characteristics of the TOP design. Results In the considered trial settings, compared to some existing Bayesian designs, the TOP design shortens the trial duration by 4–10 months and improves the power to detect effective treatment up to 90%, with well-controlled type I errors. Conclusions The TOP design is transparent and easy to implement, as its decision rules can be tabulated and included in the protocol prior to the conduct of the trial. The TOP design provides a flexible, efficient, and easy-to-implement method to accelerate and improve the development of immunotherapies.