Environmental Correlates of Lyme Disease Emergence in Southwest Virginia, 2005–2014

Lyme disease is the most common tick-borne disease in North America. Though human infection is mostly transmitted in a limited geography, the range has expanded in recent years. One notable area of recent expansion is in the mountainous region of southwestern Virginia. The ecological factors that fa...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of medical entomology 2021-07, Vol.58 (4), p.1680-1685
Main Authors: Lantos, Paul M., Tsao, Jean, Janko, Mark, Arab, Ali, von Fricken, Michael E., Auwaerter, Paul G., Nigrovic, Lise E., Fowler, Vance, Ruffin, Felicia, Gaines, David, Broyhill, James, Swenson, Jennifer
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Abundance
Analysis
Bayesian statistics
Communicable Diseases, Emerging
Cross-Sectional Studies
Development and progression
Disease control
Disease transmission
Ecology
Elevation
Environment
Epidemiology
Evaluation
geographic information system
Geography
Health aspects
Humans
Lyme disease
Lyme Disease - epidemiology
Meteorological data
MODELING/GIS, RISK ASSESSMENT, ECONOMIC IMPACT
Mountain regions
Mountainous areas
Mountains
Parasitic diseases
Remote sensing
Retrospective Studies
Tick-borne diseases
Vector-borne diseases
Vegetation
Virginia - epidemiology
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Summary:Lyme disease is the most common tick-borne disease in North America. Though human infection is mostly transmitted in a limited geography, the range has expanded in recent years. One notable area of recent expansion is in the mountainous region of southwestern Virginia. The ecological factors that facilitate or constrain the range of human Lyme disease in this region remain uncertain. To evaluate this further, we obtained ecological data, including remotely sensed data on forest structure and vegetation, weather data, and elevation. These data were aggregated within the census block groups of a 9,153 km2 area around the cities of Blacksburg and Roanoke, VA, an area with heterogeneous Lyme disease transmission. In this geographic area, 755 individuals were reported to have Lyme disease in the 10 yr from 2006 to 2015, and these cases were aggregated by block group. A zero-inflated negative binomial model was used to evaluate which environmental variables influenced the abundance of Lyme disease cases. Higher elevation and higher vegetation density had the greatest effect size on the abundance of Lyme disease. Measures of forest edge, forest integrity, temperature, and humidity were not associated with Lyme disease cases. Future southward expansion of Lyme disease into the southeastern states may be most likely in ecologically similar mountainous areas.
ISSN:0022-2585
1938-2928
DOI:10.1093/jme/tjab038