A fractional-order model for CoViD-19 dynamics with reinfection and the importance of quarantine

• Published in: Chaos, solitons and fractals solitons and fractals, 2021-10, Vol.151, p.111275-111275, Article 111275
• Main Authors: Maurício de Carvalho, João P.S., Moreira-Pinto, Beatriz
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: COVID-19; Epidemic model; Fractional calculus; Mathematical model; Reinfection
• ISSN: 0960-0779; 1873-2887; 0960-0779
• DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111275

•The basic reproduction number was calculated and the impact of the parameters of the model was discussed.•The isolation of people with CoViD-19 leads to a decline in the number of infected people. On the other hand, the lessening of the disease in the population leads to a smaller need for isolation.•A greater susceptibility to a new infection increases the number of people infected and causes CoViD- 19 to firmly persist in the population.•A population with a small number of people recovered from the disease cannot reduce the number of infected individuals. Consequently, the disease spreads faster in the population. Coronavirus disease 2019 (CoViD-19) is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Among many symptoms, cough, fever and tiredness are the most common. People over 60 years old and with associated comorbidities are most likely to develop a worsening health condition. This paper proposes a non-integer order model to describe the dynamics of CoViD-19 in a standard population. The model incorporates the reinfection rate in the individuals recovered from the disease. Numerical simulations are performed for different values of the order of the fractional derivative and of reinfection rate. The results are discussed from a biological point of view.