Recent increases in tropical cyclone precipitation extremes over the US east coast

The impacts of inland flooding caused by tropical cyclones (TCs), including loss of life, infrastructure disruption, and alteration of natural landscapes, have increased over recent decades. While these impacts are well documented, changes in TC precipitation extremes—the proximate cause of such inl...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2021-10, Vol.118 (41), p.1-8
Main Authors: Maxwell, Justin T., Bregy, Joshua C., Robeson, Scott M., Knapp, Paul A., Soulé, Peter T., Trouet, Valerie
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Anthropogenic factors
Climate change
Cyclones
Flooding
Human influences
Physical Sciences
Precipitation
Tree rings
Tropical cyclones
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Summary:The impacts of inland flooding caused by tropical cyclones (TCs), including loss of life, infrastructure disruption, and alteration of natural landscapes, have increased over recent decades. While these impacts are well documented, changes in TC precipitation extremes—the proximate cause of such inland flooding—have been more difficult to detect. Here, we present a latewood tree-ring–based record of seasonal (June 1 through October 15) TC precipitation sums (ΣTCP) from the region in North America that receives the most ΣTCP: coastal North and South Carolina. Our 319-y-long ΣTCP reconstruction reveals that ΣTCP extremes (≥0.95 quantile) have increased by 2 to 4 mm/decade since 1700 CE, with most of the increase occurring in the last 60 y. Consistent with the hypothesis that TCs are moving slower under anthropogenic climate change, we show that seasonal ΣTCP along the US East Coast are positively related to seasonal average TC duration and TC translation speed.
ISSN:0027-8424
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.2105636118