A population structure-sensitive mathematical model assessing the effects of vaccination during the third surge of COVID-19 in Italy

We provide a non-autonomous mathematical model to describe some of the most relevant parameters associated to the COVID-19 pandemic, such as daily and cumulative deaths, active cases, and cumulative incidence, among others. We will take into consideration the ways in which people from four different...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of mathematical analysis and applications 2022-10, Vol.514 (2), p.125975-125975, Article 125975
Main Authors: Jiménez-Rodríguez, Pablo, Muñoz-Fernández, Gustavo A., Rodrigo-Chocano, José C., Seoane-Sepúlveda, Juan B., Weber, Andreas
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Compartmental models
COVID-19
Mathematical biology
Mathematical epidemiology
Mathematical modeling
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Summary:We provide a non-autonomous mathematical model to describe some of the most relevant parameters associated to the COVID-19 pandemic, such as daily and cumulative deaths, active cases, and cumulative incidence, among others. We will take into consideration the ways in which people from four different age ranges react to the virus. Using an appropriate transmission function, we estimate the impact of the third surge of COVID-19 in Italy. Also, we assess two different vaccination programmes. In one of them, a single shot is administered to all citizens over 16 years old before second shots are available. In the second model, first and second shots are administered to each citizen within, approximately, 20 days of time-gap.
ISSN:0022-247X
1096-0813
0022-247X
DOI:10.1016/j.jmaa.2021.125975