Did the great influenza of 1918–1920 trigger a reversal of the first era of globalization?

I revisit the 1918–20 pandemic and ask whether it led to a reversal in the rise of trade and financial globalization that preceded it. Using annual data for 17 countries for the 1870–1928 period, a variety of tests and techniques are used to draw some robust conclusions. Overall, the pandemic a cent...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:International economics and economic policy 2022-07, Vol.19 (3), p.459-490
Main Author: Siklos, Pierre L.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
20th century
Australia
Canada
Economic Policy
Economics
Economics and Finance
Epidemics
Finland
France
Germany
Globalization
Influenza
International Economics
Japan
Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics
Military personnel
Netherlands
Norway
Original Paper
Pandemics
Portugal
Public Finance
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
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Summary:I revisit the 1918–20 pandemic and ask whether it led to a reversal in the rise of trade and financial globalization that preceded it. Using annual data for 17 countries for the 1870–1928 period, a variety of tests and techniques are used to draw some robust conclusions. Overall, the pandemic a century ago interrupted, but did not put an end, to the first globalization of the twentieth century. However, two blocs consisting of combatant and non-combatant countries, experienced significantly different consequences. Globalization was sharply curtailed for the combatant countries while there were few, if any, consequences for globalization in the non-combatant group of countries. That said, there was considerable resilience especially in trade openness among several of the combatant economies. Perhaps changes in the make-up of economic blocs, post-pandemic, is a fallout from shocks of this kind. While there are lessons for the ongoing COVID pandemics differences between the 1920s and today also play a role.
ISSN:1612-4804
1612-4812
DOI:10.1007/s10368-021-00526-1