The Prediction of Influenza-like Illness and Respiratory Disease Using LSTM and ARIMA

• Published in: International journal of environmental research and public health 2022-02, Vol.19 (3), p.1858
• Main Authors: Tsan, Yu-Tse, Chen, Der-Yuan, Liu, Po-Yu, Kristiani, Endah, Nguyen, Kieu Lan Phuong, Yang, Chao-Tung
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Air Pollutants; Air pollution; Autoregressive models; Datasets; Disease control; Environmental protection; Forecasting; Historical account; Humans; Illnesses; Influenza, Human - epidemiology; Long short-term memory; Neural networks; Outdoor air quality; Pollutants; Respiration Disorders; Respiratory diseases; Taiwan - epidemiology
• ISSN: 1660-4601; 1661-7827; 1660-4601
• DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19031858

This paper proposed the forecasting model of Influenza-like Illness (ILI) and respiratory disease. The dataset was extracted from the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (EPA) for air pollutants data and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) for disease cases from 2009 to 2018. First, this paper applied the ARIMA method, which trained based on the weekly number of disease cases in time series. Second, we implemented the Long short-term memory (LSTM) method, which trained based on the correlation between the weekly number of diseases and air pollutants. The models were also trained and evaluated based on five and ten years of historical data. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) has an excellent model in the five-year dataset of ILI at 2564.9 compared to ten years at 8173.6 of RMSE value. This accuracy is similar to the Respiratory dataset, which gets 15,656.7 in the five-year dataset and 22,680.4 of RMSE value in the ten-year dataset. On the contrary, LSTM has better accuracy in the ten-year dataset than the five-year dataset. For example, on average of RMSE in the ILI dataset, LSTM has 720.2 RMSE value in five years and 517.0 in ten years dataset. Also, in the Respiratory disease dataset, LSTM gets 4768.6 of five years of data and 3254.3 of the ten-year dataset. These experiments revealed that the LSTM model generally outperforms ARIMA by three to seven times higher model performance.