How and to what extent does the anti-social behavior of violating self-quarantine measures increase the spread of disease?

• Published in: Chaos, solitons and fractals solitons and fractals, 2022-06, Vol.159, p.112178-112178, Article 112178
• Main Authors: Utsumi, Shinobu, Arefin, Md. Rajib, Tatsukawa, Yuichi, Tanimoto, Jun
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Mathematical epidemiology; Multi-agent simulation; Quarantine policy; SIR process
• ISSN: 0960-0779; 1873-2887; 0960-0779
• DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112178

COVID-19 has shown that quarantine (or self-isolation) may be the only available tool against an unknown infectious disease if neither an effective vaccine nor anti-viral medication is available. Motivated by the fact that a considerable number of people were not compliant with the request for self-quarantine made by public authorities, this study used a multi-agent simulation model, whose results were validated by theory work, which highlights how and to what extent such an anti-social behavior hampers the confinement of a disease. Our framework quantifies two important scenarios: in one scenario a certain number of individuals totally ignore quarantine, whereas in the second scenario a larger number of individuals partially ignore the imposed policy. Our results reveal that the latter scenario can be more hazardous even if the total amount of social deficit of activity—measured by the total number of severed links in a physical network—would be same as the former scenario has, of which quantitative extent is dependent on the fraction of asymptomatic infected cases and the level of quarantine intensity the government imposing. Our findings have significance not only to epidemiology but also to research in the broader field of network science. Theory and modeling; computer simulation, 87.15.Aa; Dynamics of evolution, 87.23.Kg. •Anti-social behavior of violating self-quarantine requirement is quantified.•Multi-agent simulations, MAS, model two scenarios of violation of self-quarantine.•A small proportion totally ignoring quarantine is compared to that in which most of the agents are slightly incompliant.•The MAS result shows the second scenario to be more hazardous.•The results are dependent on the fraction of asymptomatic infected cases and the extent of self-quarantine level.