Does the weather play a role in the spread of pandemic influenza? A study of H1N1pdm09 infections in France during 2009–2010

Understanding patterns of influenza spread and persistence is crucial for pandemic preparedness. The H1N1pdm09 virus caused the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century which resulted in at least 18500 deaths. Based on laboratory-confirmed primary-care case reports we investigated the role of we...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Epidemiology and infection 2015-12, Vol.143 (16), p.3384-3393
Main Authors: VITTECOQ, M., ROCHE, B., COHEN, J.-M., RENAUD, F., THOMAS, F., GAUTHIER-CLERC, M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Cities
Demography
Environmental Sciences
France
France - epidemiology
Humans
Humidity
Infections
Influenza
Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype
Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype - isolation & purification
Influenza, Human
Influenza, Human - epidemiology
Influenza, Human - virology
Laboratories
Meteorological Concepts
Mortality
Original Papers
Pandemics
Socioeconomic Factors
Viruses
Winter
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Summary:Understanding patterns of influenza spread and persistence is crucial for pandemic preparedness. The H1N1pdm09 virus caused the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century which resulted in at least 18500 deaths. Based on laboratory-confirmed primary-care case reports we investigated the role of weather conditions and socio-demographic variables in its initial spread and subsequent presence in France. Our findings suggest that low relative humidity and high population density were determinants in shaping the early spread of the virus at the national level. Those conditions also favoured the persistence of viral presence throughout the first 33 weeks of the pandemic. Additionally this persistence was significantly favoured by low insolation. These results confirm the increasingly recognized role of humidity in influenza dynamics and underlie the concomitant effect of insolation. Therefore climatic factors should be taken into account when designing influenza control and prevention measures.
ISSN:0950-2688
1469-4409
DOI:10.1017/S0950268815000941