Multi-state modelling reveals sex-dependent transmission, progression and severity of tuberculosis in wild badgers

Statistical models of epidemiology in wildlife populations usually consider diseased individuals as a single class, despite knowledge that infections progress through states of severity. Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a serious zoonotic disease threatening the UK livestock industry, but we have limite...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Epidemiology and infection 2013-07, Vol.141 (7), p.1429-1436
Main Authors: GRAHAM, J., SMITH, G. C., DELAHAY, R. J., BAILEY, T., McDONALD, R. A., HODGSON, D.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animals
Badgers
Biological and medical sciences
Cattle
Disease models
Disease Progression
Disease Reservoirs - veterinary
Disease transmission
Ecological modeling
Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay
Epidemiology
Female
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
Infections
Male
Microbiology
Models, Statistical
Mortality
Mustelidae
Mycobacterium bovis - isolation & purification
Mycobacterium tuberculosis
Original Papers
Severity of Illness Index
Sex Factors
Survival Analysis
Tuberculosis
Tuberculosis - diagnosis
Tuberculosis - epidemiology
Tuberculosis - transmission
Tuberculosis - veterinary
Tuberculosis, Bovine - prevention & control
Tuberculosis, Bovine - transmission
United Kingdom - epidemiology
Zoonoses
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Summary:Statistical models of epidemiology in wildlife populations usually consider diseased individuals as a single class, despite knowledge that infections progress through states of severity. Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a serious zoonotic disease threatening the UK livestock industry, but we have limited understanding of key epidemiological processes in its wildlife reservoirs. We estimated differential survival, force of infection and progression in disease states in a population of Eurasian badgers (Meles meles), naturally infected with bTB. Our state-dependent models overturn prevailing categorizations of badger disease states, and find novel evidence for early onset of disease-induced mortality in male but not female badgers. Males also have higher risk of infection and more rapid disease progression which, coupled with state-dependent increases in mortality, could promote sex biases in the risk of transmission to cattle. Our results reveal hidden complexities in wildlife disease epidemiology, with implications for the management of TB and other zoonotic diseases.
ISSN:0950-2688
1469-4409
DOI:10.1017/S0950268812003019