Delays, Masks, the Elderly, and Schools: First Covid-19 Wave in the Czech Republic

Running across the globe for nearly 2 years, the Covid-19 pandemic keeps demonstrating its strength. Despite a lot of understanding, uncertainty regarding the efficiency of interventions still persists. We developed an age-structured epidemic model parameterized with epidemiological and sociological...

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Published in:Bulletin of mathematical biology 2022-08, Vol.84 (8), p.75-75, Article 75
Main Authors: Berec, Luděk, Smyčka, Jan, Levínský, René, Hromádková, Eva, Šoltés, Michal, Šlerka, Josef, Tuček, Vít, Trnka, Jan, Šmíd, Martin, Zajíček, Milan, Diviák, Tomáš, Neruda, Roman, Vidnerová, Petra
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Cell Biology
COVID-19
COVID-19 Publications
Epidemic models
Epidemiology
Life Sciences
Masks
Mathematical and Computational Biology
Mathematics
Mathematics and Statistics
Older people
Pandemics
Vaccination
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Summary:Running across the globe for nearly 2 years, the Covid-19 pandemic keeps demonstrating its strength. Despite a lot of understanding, uncertainty regarding the efficiency of interventions still persists. We developed an age-structured epidemic model parameterized with epidemiological and sociological data for the first Covid-19 wave in the Czech Republic and found that (1) starting the spring 2020 lockdown 4 days earlier might prevent half of the confirmed cases by the end of lockdown period, (2) personal protective measures such as face masks appear more effective than just a realized reduction in social contacts, (3) the strategy of sheltering just the elderly is not at all effective, and (4) leaving schools open is a risky strategy. Despite vaccination programs, evidence-based choice and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions remains an effective weapon against the Covid-19 pandemic.
ISSN:0092-8240
1522-9602
DOI:10.1007/s11538-022-01031-5