A Multiscale Model of COVID-19 Dynamics

COVID-19, caused by the infection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has been a global pandemic and created unprecedented public health challenges throughout the world. Despite significant progresses in understanding the disease pathogenesis and progression, the epidemi...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Bulletin of mathematical biology 2022-09, Vol.84 (9), p.99-99, Article 99
Main Authors: Wang, Xueying, Wang, Sunpeng, Wang, Jin, Rong, Libin
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bifurcations
Cell Biology
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Disease control
Disease transmission
Disinfection
Dynamics
Epidemic models
Epidemiology
Health services
Hygiene
Infections
Infectious diseases
Life Sciences
Mathematical and Computational Biology
Mathematics
Mathematics and Statistics
Original
Original Article
Pandemics
Pathogenesis
Pathogens
Public health
Respiratory diseases
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Viral diseases
Viral infections
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Summary:COVID-19, caused by the infection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has been a global pandemic and created unprecedented public health challenges throughout the world. Despite significant progresses in understanding the disease pathogenesis and progression, the epidemiological triad of pathogen, host, and environment remains unclear. In this paper, we develop a multiscale model to study the coupled within-host and between-host dynamics of COVID-19. The model includes multiple transmission routes (both human-to-human and environment-to-human) and connects multiple scales (both the population and individual levels). A detailed analysis on the local and global dynamics of the fast system, slow system and full system shows that rich dynamics, including both forward and backward bifurcations, emerge with the coupling of viral infection and epidemiological models. Model fitting to both virological and epidemiological data facilitates the evaluation of the influence of a few infection characteristics and antiviral treatment on the spread of the disease. Our work underlines the potential role that the environment can play in the transmission of COVID-19. Antiviral treatment of infected individuals can delay but cannot prevent the emergence of disease outbreaks. These results highlight the implementation of comprehensive intervention measures such as social distancing and wearing masks that aim to stop airborne transmission, combined with surface disinfection and hand hygiene that can prevent environmental transmission. The model also provides a multiscale modeling framework to study other infectious diseases when the environment can serve as a reservoir of pathogens.
ISSN:0092-8240
1522-9602
DOI:10.1007/s11538-022-01058-8