SARS-CoV-2 transmission in university classes

We investigate transmission dynamics for SARS-CoV-2 on a real network of classes at Simon Fraser University. Outbreaks are simulated over the course of one semester across numerous parameter settings, including moving classes above certain size thresholds online. Regression trees are used to analyze...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Network modeling and analysis in health informatics and bioinformatics (Wien) 2022-12, Vol.11 (1), p.32, Article 32
Main Authors: Ruth, William, Lockhart, Richard
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Applications of Graph Theory and Complex Networks
Bioinformatics
College campuses
Colleges & universities
Computational Biology/Bioinformatics
Computer Science
Datasets
Disease transmission
Enrollments
Epidemics
Health Informatics
Infections
Learning
Original
Original Article
Outbreaks
Pandemics
Parameters
Quarantine
Regression analysis
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Students
Viral diseases
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Summary:We investigate transmission dynamics for SARS-CoV-2 on a real network of classes at Simon Fraser University. Outbreaks are simulated over the course of one semester across numerous parameter settings, including moving classes above certain size thresholds online. Regression trees are used to analyze the effect of disease parameters on simulation outputs. We find that an aggressive class size thresholding strategy is required to mitigate the risk of a large outbreak, and that transmission by symptomatic individuals is a key driver of outbreak size. These findings provide guidance for designing control strategies at other institutions, as well as setting priorities and allocating resources for disease monitoring.
ISSN:2192-6662
2192-6670
DOI:10.1007/s13721-022-00375-1