Dynamics diagnosis of the COVID-19 deaths using the Pearson diagram

• Published in: Chaos, solitons and fractals solitons and fractals, 2022-11, Vol.164, p.112634-112634, Article 112634
• Main Authors: Gonçalves, Alan D.S., Fernandes, Leonardo H.S., Nascimento, Abraão D.C.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Bootstrap; COVID-19; Kurtosis; Pearson diagram; Skewness; Time series
• ISSN: 0960-0779; 1873-2887; 0960-0779
• DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112634

The pandemic COVID-19 brings with it the need for studies and tools to help those in charge make decisions. Working with classical time series methods such as ARIMA and SARIMA has shown promising results in the first studies of COVID-19. We advance in this branch by proposing a risk factor map induced by the well-known Pearson diagram based on multivariate kurtosis and skewness measures to analyze the dynamics of deaths from COVID-19. In particular, we combine bootstrap for time series with SARIMA modeling in a new paradigm to construct a map on which one can analyze the dynamics of a set of time series. The proposed map allows a risk analysis of multiple countries in the four different periods of the pandemic COVID-19 in 55 countries. Our empirical evidence suggests a direct relationship between the multivariate skewness and kurtosis. We observe that the multivariate kurtosis increase leads to the rise of the multivariate skewness. Our findings reveal that the countries with high risk from the behavior of the number of deaths tend to have pronounced skewness and kurtosis values.