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Assessing the risk zones of Chagas' disease in Chile, in a world marked by global climatic change
Vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi appears to be interrupted in Chile; however, data show increasing incidence of Chagas' disease, raising concerns that there may be a reemerging problem. To estimate the actual risk in a changing world it is necessary to consider the historical vector dis...
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Published in: | Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz 2018-01, Vol.113 (1), p.24-29 |
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creator | Tapia-Garay, Valentina Figueroa, Daniela P Maldonado, Ana Frías-Laserre, Daniel Gonzalez, Christian R Parra, Alonso Canals, Lucia Apt, Werner Alvarado, Sergio Cáceres, Dante Canals, Mauricio |
description | Vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi appears to be interrupted in Chile; however, data show increasing incidence of Chagas' disease, raising concerns that there may be a reemerging problem.
To estimate the actual risk in a changing world it is necessary to consider the historical vector distribution and correlate this distribution with the presence of cases and climate change.
Potential distribution models of Triatoma infestans and Chagas disease were performed using Maxent, a machine-learning method.
Climate change appears to play a major role in the reemergence of Chagas' disease and T. infestans in Chile. The distribution of both T. infestans and Chagas' disease correlated with maximum temperature, and the precipitation during the driest month. The overlap of Chagas' disease and T. infestans distribution areas was high. The distribution of T. infestans, under two global change scenarios, showed a minimal reduction tendency in suitable areas.
The impact of temperature and precipitation on the distribution of T. infestans, as shown by the models, indicates the need for aggressive control efforts; the current control measures, including T. infestans control campaigns, should be maintained with the same intensity as they have at present, avoiding sylvatic foci, intrusions, and recolonisation of human dwellings. |
doi_str_mv | 10.1590/0074-02760170172 |
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To estimate the actual risk in a changing world it is necessary to consider the historical vector distribution and correlate this distribution with the presence of cases and climate change.
Potential distribution models of Triatoma infestans and Chagas disease were performed using Maxent, a machine-learning method.
Climate change appears to play a major role in the reemergence of Chagas' disease and T. infestans in Chile. The distribution of both T. infestans and Chagas' disease correlated with maximum temperature, and the precipitation during the driest month. The overlap of Chagas' disease and T. infestans distribution areas was high. The distribution of T. infestans, under two global change scenarios, showed a minimal reduction tendency in suitable areas.
The impact of temperature and precipitation on the distribution of T. infestans, as shown by the models, indicates the need for aggressive control efforts; the current control measures, including T. infestans control campaigns, should be maintained with the same intensity as they have at present, avoiding sylvatic foci, intrusions, and recolonisation of human dwellings.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0074-0276</identifier><identifier>ISSN: 1678-8060</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1678-8060</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1590/0074-02760170172</identifier><identifier>PMID: 29211105</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Brazil: Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde</publisher><subject>Animals ; Chagas Disease - transmission ; Chagas' disease ; Chile ; Climate Change ; distribution ; Humans ; Insect Vectors - parasitology ; Models, Biological ; PARASITOLOGY ; Risk Factors ; Triatoma - parasitology ; Triatoma infestans ; TROPICAL MEDICINE ; Trypanosoma cruzi - isolation & purification</subject><ispartof>Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, 2018-01, Vol.113 (1), p.24-29</ispartof><rights>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c501t-30c466cc607ed573a694aed6a19bd32f2245771d7816f37c773fda563a81ff873</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c501t-30c466cc607ed573a694aed6a19bd32f2245771d7816f37c773fda563a81ff873</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5719539/pdf/$$EPDF$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5719539/$$EHTML$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,727,780,784,885,24149,27923,27924,53790,53792</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29211105$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Tapia-Garay, Valentina</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Figueroa, Daniela P</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Maldonado, Ana</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Frías-Laserre, Daniel</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gonzalez, Christian R</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Parra, Alonso</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Canals, Lucia</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Apt, Werner</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Alvarado, Sergio</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cáceres, Dante</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Canals, Mauricio</creatorcontrib><title>Assessing the risk zones of Chagas' disease in Chile, in a world marked by global climatic change</title><title>Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz</title><addtitle>Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz</addtitle><description>Vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi appears to be interrupted in Chile; however, data show increasing incidence of Chagas' disease, raising concerns that there may be a reemerging problem.
To estimate the actual risk in a changing world it is necessary to consider the historical vector distribution and correlate this distribution with the presence of cases and climate change.
Potential distribution models of Triatoma infestans and Chagas disease were performed using Maxent, a machine-learning method.
Climate change appears to play a major role in the reemergence of Chagas' disease and T. infestans in Chile. The distribution of both T. infestans and Chagas' disease correlated with maximum temperature, and the precipitation during the driest month. The overlap of Chagas' disease and T. infestans distribution areas was high. The distribution of T. infestans, under two global change scenarios, showed a minimal reduction tendency in suitable areas.
The impact of temperature and precipitation on the distribution of T. infestans, as shown by the models, indicates the need for aggressive control efforts; the current control measures, including T. infestans control campaigns, should be maintained with the same intensity as they have at present, avoiding sylvatic foci, intrusions, and recolonisation of human dwellings.</description><subject>Animals</subject><subject>Chagas Disease - transmission</subject><subject>Chagas' disease</subject><subject>Chile</subject><subject>Climate Change</subject><subject>distribution</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Insect Vectors - parasitology</subject><subject>Models, Biological</subject><subject>PARASITOLOGY</subject><subject>Risk Factors</subject><subject>Triatoma - parasitology</subject><subject>Triatoma infestans</subject><subject>TROPICAL MEDICINE</subject><subject>Trypanosoma cruzi - isolation & purification</subject><issn>0074-0276</issn><issn>1678-8060</issn><issn>1678-8060</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2018</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>DOA</sourceid><recordid>eNpVUU1vFDEMjRCILoU7J5QbF6bYk8nHXJCqFR-VKnEAzpEnycxmOzupki2o_HqybFlRyZEdW-_5yY-x1wgXKHt4D6C7BlqtAHWN9glbodKmMaDgKVudxmfsRSlbqKVQ3XN21vYtIoJcMbosJZQSl4nvN4HnWG7477SEwtPI1xuaqLzlPpZAJfC41Facw7tDRfxXyrPnO8o3wfPhnk9zGmjmbo472kfH3YaWKbxkz0aaS3j1kM_Zj08fv6-_NNdfP1-tL68bJwH3jQDXKeWcAh281IJU31HwirAfvGjHtu2k1ui1QTUK7bQWoyepBBkcR6PFObs68vpEW3ubq4h8bxNF-7eR8mQpV1lzsE57MjRIEwbs_KAHMaKQwZv6E4iqcl0cuYqLYU52m-7yUsXbb4eT2sNJW0ADAFhf21XAhyPg9m7YBe_Css80P1LxeLLEjZ3STys19lL0lQCOBC6nUnIYT1gEe_DanjY_eF0hb_7feQL8M1f8AcgDoYk</recordid><startdate>201801</startdate><enddate>201801</enddate><creator>Tapia-Garay, Valentina</creator><creator>Figueroa, Daniela P</creator><creator>Maldonado, Ana</creator><creator>Frías-Laserre, Daniel</creator><creator>Gonzalez, Christian R</creator><creator>Parra, Alonso</creator><creator>Canals, Lucia</creator><creator>Apt, Werner</creator><creator>Alvarado, Sergio</creator><creator>Cáceres, Dante</creator><creator>Canals, Mauricio</creator><general>Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde</general><general>Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>5PM</scope><scope>GPN</scope><scope>DOA</scope></search><sort><creationdate>201801</creationdate><title>Assessing the risk zones of Chagas' disease in Chile, in a world marked by global climatic change</title><author>Tapia-Garay, Valentina ; Figueroa, Daniela P ; Maldonado, Ana ; Frías-Laserre, Daniel ; Gonzalez, Christian R ; Parra, Alonso ; Canals, Lucia ; Apt, Werner ; Alvarado, Sergio ; Cáceres, Dante ; Canals, Mauricio</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c501t-30c466cc607ed573a694aed6a19bd32f2245771d7816f37c773fda563a81ff873</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2018</creationdate><topic>Animals</topic><topic>Chagas Disease - transmission</topic><topic>Chagas' disease</topic><topic>Chile</topic><topic>Climate Change</topic><topic>distribution</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Insect Vectors - parasitology</topic><topic>Models, Biological</topic><topic>PARASITOLOGY</topic><topic>Risk Factors</topic><topic>Triatoma - parasitology</topic><topic>Triatoma infestans</topic><topic>TROPICAL MEDICINE</topic><topic>Trypanosoma cruzi - isolation & purification</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Tapia-Garay, Valentina</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Figueroa, Daniela P</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Maldonado, Ana</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Frías-Laserre, Daniel</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gonzalez, Christian R</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Parra, Alonso</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Canals, Lucia</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Apt, Werner</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Alvarado, Sergio</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cáceres, Dante</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Canals, Mauricio</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><collection>SciELO</collection><collection>Directory of Open Access Journals</collection><jtitle>Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Tapia-Garay, Valentina</au><au>Figueroa, Daniela P</au><au>Maldonado, Ana</au><au>Frías-Laserre, Daniel</au><au>Gonzalez, Christian R</au><au>Parra, Alonso</au><au>Canals, Lucia</au><au>Apt, Werner</au><au>Alvarado, Sergio</au><au>Cáceres, Dante</au><au>Canals, Mauricio</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Assessing the risk zones of Chagas' disease in Chile, in a world marked by global climatic change</atitle><jtitle>Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz</jtitle><addtitle>Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz</addtitle><date>2018-01</date><risdate>2018</risdate><volume>113</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>24</spage><epage>29</epage><pages>24-29</pages><issn>0074-0276</issn><issn>1678-8060</issn><eissn>1678-8060</eissn><abstract>Vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi appears to be interrupted in Chile; however, data show increasing incidence of Chagas' disease, raising concerns that there may be a reemerging problem.
To estimate the actual risk in a changing world it is necessary to consider the historical vector distribution and correlate this distribution with the presence of cases and climate change.
Potential distribution models of Triatoma infestans and Chagas disease were performed using Maxent, a machine-learning method.
Climate change appears to play a major role in the reemergence of Chagas' disease and T. infestans in Chile. The distribution of both T. infestans and Chagas' disease correlated with maximum temperature, and the precipitation during the driest month. The overlap of Chagas' disease and T. infestans distribution areas was high. The distribution of T. infestans, under two global change scenarios, showed a minimal reduction tendency in suitable areas.
The impact of temperature and precipitation on the distribution of T. infestans, as shown by the models, indicates the need for aggressive control efforts; the current control measures, including T. infestans control campaigns, should be maintained with the same intensity as they have at present, avoiding sylvatic foci, intrusions, and recolonisation of human dwellings.</abstract><cop>Brazil</cop><pub>Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde</pub><pmid>29211105</pmid><doi>10.1590/0074-02760170172</doi><tpages>6</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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subjects | Animals Chagas Disease - transmission Chagas' disease Chile Climate Change distribution Humans Insect Vectors - parasitology Models, Biological PARASITOLOGY Risk Factors Triatoma - parasitology Triatoma infestans TROPICAL MEDICINE Trypanosoma cruzi - isolation & purification |
title | Assessing the risk zones of Chagas' disease in Chile, in a world marked by global climatic change |
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