Estimating piecewise exponential frailty model with changing prior for baseline hazard function

• Main Authors: Thamrin, Sri Astuti, Lawi, Armin
• Format: Conference Proceeding
• Language: English
• Subjects: Bayesian analysis; Computer simulation; Frailty; Heterogeneity; Kidneys; Markov chains; Mathematical models; Monte Carlo simulation; Risk analysis; Sensitivity analysis; Survival; Variables
• ISSN: 0094-243X; 1551-7616
• DOI: 10.1063/1.4940871

Piecewise exponential models provide a very flexible framework for modelling univariate survival data. It can be used to estimate the effects of different covariates which are influenced by the survival data. Although in a strict sense it is a parametric model, a piecewise exponential hazard can approximate any shape of a parametric baseline hazard. In the parametric baseline hazard, the hazard function for each individual may depend on a set of risk factors or explanatory variables. However, it usually does not explain all such variables which are known or measurable, and these variables become interesting to be considered. This unknown and unobservable risk factor of the hazard function is often termed as the individual’s heterogeneity or frailty. This paper analyses the effects of unobserved population heterogeneity in patients’ survival times. The issue of model choice through variable selection is also considered. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess the influence of the prior for each parameter. We used the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method in computing the Bayesian estimator on kidney infection data. The results obtained show that the sex and frailty are substantially associated with survival in this study and the models are relatively quite sensitive to the choice of two different priors.