Application of foresight technologies: On the example of development of actual ecological architecture

• Published in: AIP conference proceedings 2022-10, Vol.2657 (1)
• Main Authors: Lavrentyev, Alexander, Burganova, Maria, Fusu, Larisa
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Architecture; Forecasting; Internet of Things; Landscape design; Multivariate statistical analysis; Statistical analysis; Urban development; Urban environments
• ISSN: 0094-243X; 1551-7616
• DOI: 10.1063/5.0110794

It is determined that the study of systemic innovation phenomena (including, on the example of the development of actual ecological architecture) is most appropriate to carry out through use of foresight technologies, while a theoretical researcher or practical specialist must clearly understand the general nature of the interdependencies between objects. For the deepest understanding of such interdependencies, as a research tool, we applied a multivariate statistical analysis to identify the principal components. Based on the study of such phenomena as the concept of ecological architecture and considering the expert assessments of approaches to the design and construction of the largest architectural objects in Russian cities with a population of more than a million people, the article shows that the most significant factors are use of a landscape-oriented approach to design, as well as use of ecological construction methods. In conclusion, it is concluded that development of the concept of a smart city in modern research is often presented as one of the areas of application of the Internet of Things technology, an object (and not a subject) of monitoring, in order to obtain and analyze big data. However, such a view does not allow formation of an objective forecasting of the development of the urban environment in a strategic perspective. For in-depth analysis and forecasting, it is necessary to use foresight technologies to identify the most significant phenomena and processes. Wherein, it is necessary to constantly monitor the actual importance of the prerequisites, factors, properties that underlie in the life of the city both in its stability and in its transformation, and on the basis of which such a forecast of strategic development shall be determined, including the goal of finding and identifying hidden patterns in development of such a significant phenomenon as the introduction of the concept of sustainable urban development.