A cost comparison of technology approaches for improving access to electricity services

• Published in: Energy (Oxford) 2016, Vol.95, p.255-265
• Main Authors: Nerini, Francesco Fuso, Broad, Oliver, Mentis, Dimitris, Welsch, Manuel, Bazilian, Morgan, Howells, Mark
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Assessments; Computer programs; Electric power generation; Electricity pricing; Energy access; Energy utilization; Least cost energy modeling; Mathematical models; Power planning; Renewable energy; Rural areas; Rural electrification
• ISSN: 0360-5442; 1873-6785
• DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.11.068

The UN's Sustainable Energy For All initiative has made universal access to energy by 2030 a key target. Countries wherein budgets are constrained and institutions stressed are faced with the challenge of further extending energy services – and doing so significantly. To meet this goal for the power sector in a cost-effective way, governments have to consider the deployment of a mix of stand-alone, mini-grid and grid-based solutions. To help inform analysis, planning and the decision process, this paper presents a simple, transparent, least-cost model for the electrification of rural areas. The approach builds on four key parameters, namely: (i) target level and quality of energy access, (ii) population density, (iii) local grid connection characteristics and (iv) local energy resources availability and technology cost. From an application perspective, this work can be used both for (1) fast assessments of specific energy access projects, and (2) to inform more complex regional studies using a geo-referencing software to analyze the results. Such applications are presented in the results using country case studies developed for Nigeria and Ethiopia. These show how the strategy for expanding energy access may vary significantly both between and within given regions of energy-poor countries. •Least-cost electrification solutions differ depending on local characteristics.•With increasing access targets least-cost solutions move from off-to on-grid.•In Ethiopia, stand-alone solutions are cost-effective for electrifying large areas.•In Nigeria, high population densities and a spread grid favor grid-based solutions.