Uncertainty analysis of stochastic dynamic line rating

• Published in: Electric power systems research 2021-05, Vol.194, p.107043, Article 107043
• Main Authors: Hajeforosh, SeyedeFatemeh, Bollen, Math H.J.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Dynamic line rating; Electric Power Engineering; Electric power transmission; Elkraftteknik; International trade; Overloading; Power system protection; Probability; Probability theory; Rating services; Stochastic method; Stochastic models; Uncertainty; Uncertainty analysis
• ISSN: 0378-7796; 1873-2046; 1873-2046
• DOI: 10.1016/j.epsr.2021.107043

•Analysis of uncertainties in overhead line rating for different loading patterns.•A stochastic model for dynamic line rating for estimating the probability of overloading.•Uncertainties in line rating due to uncertainty in weather parameters.•Application of stochastic dynamic rating to protection and operation. This paper presents an uncertainty analysis of lines equipped with dynamic line rating (DLR) that are exposed to operational overloading. Multiple sources of uncertainties are taken in to account to model the line rating probabilistically. The superiority of dynamic rating above static rating is confirmed in this paper. However, it is shown in this paper that when the uncertainties in line rating are not considered, DLR can result in a high probability of undetected overloading. Based on assumptions for the uncertainties in relevant weather parameters, the probability of overloading is calculated for three different loading profiles of a line, for each hour during an eight-year period. Guaranteeing a low probability of overloading, with a deterministic dynamic rating, will require a large margin and result in many hours during which unnecessary measures against overloading will be taken. A stochastic dynamic rating, as introduced in this paper, allows for a more transparent and hour-by-hour trade-off between failure to take measures and unnecessary measures against overloading.