Intrinsic Pink-Noise Multidecadal Global Climate Dynamics Mode

Understanding multidecadal variability is an essential goal of climate dynamics. For example, the recent phenomenon referred to as the "global warming hiatus" may reflect a coupling to an intrinsic, preindustrial, multidecadal variability process. Here, using a multifractal time-series met...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Physical review letters 2018-09, Vol.121 (10), p.108701-108701, Article 108701
Main Authors: Moon, Woosok, Agarwal, Sahil, Wettlaufer, J S
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Climate
Empirical analysis
Function analysis
Greenhouse effect
Greenhouse gases
Heat flux
Heat sinks
Noise
Orthogonal functions
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Summary:Understanding multidecadal variability is an essential goal of climate dynamics. For example, the recent phenomenon referred to as the "global warming hiatus" may reflect a coupling to an intrinsic, preindustrial, multidecadal variability process. Here, using a multifractal time-series method, we demonstrate that 42 data sets of 79 proxies with global coverage exhibit pink-noise characteristics on multidecadal timescales. To quantify the persistence of this behavior, we examine high-resolution ice core and speleothem data to find pink noise in both pre- and postindustrial periods. We examine the spatial structure with an empirical orthogonal function analysis of the monthly averaged surface temperature from 1901 to 2012. The first mode clearly shows the distribution of ocean heat flux sinks located in the eastern Pacific and the Southern Ocean and has pink-noise characteristics on a multidecadal timescale. We hypothesize that this pink-noise multidecadal spatial mode may resonate with externally driven greenhouse gas forcing, driving large-scale climate processes.
ISSN:0031-9007
1079-7114
1079-7114
DOI:10.1103/PhysRevLett.121.108701