Cascading regime shifts within and across scales

Regime shifts are large, abrupt, and persistent critical transitions in the function and structure of ecosystems. Yet, it is unknown how these transitions will interact, whether the occurrence of one will increase the likelihood of another or simply correlate at distant places. We explored two types...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 2018-12, Vol.362 (6421), p.1379-1383
Main Authors: Rocha, Juan C, Peterson, Garry, Bodin, Örjan, Levin, Simon
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Climate Change
Economic models
Ecosystem
Ecosystems
Environmental changes
Futures market
Markov analysis
Network analysis
Structure-function relationships
Time Factors
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Summary:Regime shifts are large, abrupt, and persistent critical transitions in the function and structure of ecosystems. Yet, it is unknown how these transitions will interact, whether the occurrence of one will increase the likelihood of another or simply correlate at distant places. We explored two types of cascading effects: Domino effects create one-way dependencies, whereas hidden feedbacks produce two-way interactions. We compare them with the control case of driver sharing, which can induce correlations. Using 30 regime shifts described as networks, we show that 45% of regime shift pairwise combinations present at least one plausible structural interdependence. The likelihood of cascading effects depends on cross-scale interactions but differs for each type. Management of regime shifts should account for potential connections.
ISSN:0036-8075
1095-9203
1095-9203
DOI:10.1126/science.aat7850