Provision of aquatic ecosystem services as a consequence of societal changes: The case of the Baltic Sea

• Published in: Population ecology 2021-01, Vol.63 (1), p.61-74
• Main Authors: Hyytiäinen, Kari, Bauer, Barbara, Bly Joyce, Kerstin, Ehrnsten, Eva, Eilola, Kari, Gustafsson, Bo G., Meier, H. E. Markus, Norkko, Alf, Saraiva, Sofia, Tomczak, Maciej, Zandersen, Marianne
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Adaptation; Algblomning; Aquatic ecosystems; Biogeochemistry; biogeokemi; Climate; Climate change; Cyanobacteria bloom; Demersal fish; Ecosystem models; Ecosystem Services; Ekosystemtjänster; Environment models; Fish; Fisheries; Fossil fuels; Fossils; Futures; Global climate; Integrated models; Integrerade modeller; Klimatförändring; marinbiologi; Marine Biology; Marine ecosystems; Mitigation; Pelagic fish; Pelagic fisheries; Primary production; Primärproduktion; Provisioning; Recreation; Socioeconomics; Sustainability; systemekologi; Systems Ecology; Water pollution; Well being
• ISSN: 1438-3896; 1438-390X; 1438-390X
• DOI: 10.1002/1438-390X.12033

Aquatic ecosystem services are important for human wellbeing, but they are much less studied than terrestrial ecosystem services. The objectives of this study are to broaden, itemize and exemplify the human‐nature interactions in modeling the future provision of aquatic ecosystem services. We include shared socioeconomic and representative concentration pathways, used extensively in climate research, as drivers of change for the future development of the Baltic Sea. Then we use biogeochemical and ecosystem models to demonstrate the future development of exemplary supporting, provisioning and cultural ecosystem services for two distinct combinations of regionally downscaled global climate and socioeconomic futures. According to the model simulations, the two global futures (“Sustainable well‐being” vs. “Fossil‐fuelled development”) studied lead to clearly deviating trajectories in the provision of marine ecosystem services. Under the “Sustainable well‐being”‐scenario primary production decreases by 20%, catches of demersal fish increases and the recreation opportunities increase significantly by the end of the ongoing century. Under the “fossil‐fuelled development”‐scenario primary production doubles, fisheries focus on less valued pelagic fish and the recreation possibilities will decrease. Long‐term projections of aquatic ecosystem services prepared for alternative global socioeconomic futures can be used by policy makers and managers to adaptively and iteratively adjust mitigation and adaptation effort with plausible future changes in the drivers of water pollution. This article extends shared socioeconomic and representative concentration pathways as drivers of change for the future development of the Baltic Sea. These scenarios are used as inputs to biogeochemical and ecosystem models to demonstrate the future development of exemplary supporting, provisioning and cultural ecosystem services. The two global futures studied lead to clearly deviating trajectories in the provision of marine ecosystem services.