Where Would Ukrainian Refugees Go if They Could Go Anywhere?

We present estimates of the number of refugees expected to flee Ukraine and to which countries they are expected to migrate based on migration preferences data from the Gallup World Poll (GWP). This is important in terms of both immediate refugee assistance efforts and long-term integration policies...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The International migration review 2023-06, Vol.57 (2), p.587-602
Main Authors: Elinder, Mikael, Erixson, Oscar, Hammar, Olle
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Economics
Migration
Migration preferences
Nationalekonomi
Policies
Refugees
Ukraine
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Summary:We present estimates of the number of refugees expected to flee Ukraine and to which countries they are expected to migrate based on migration preferences data from the Gallup World Poll (GWP). This is important in terms of both immediate refugee assistance efforts and long-term integration policies. Our key finding is that as many as 12 million people may want to leave Ukraine permanently and that refugee policies in potential destination countries are likely to have a substantial impact on the distribution of Ukrainian refugees between different countries. More specifically, international solidarity in response to the migration crisis would significantly reduce the refugee flows to European Union (EU) countries, incur a limited burden on non-EU countries, and at the same time, better take the preferences of the Ukrainians into account.
ISSN:0197-9183
1747-7379
1747-7379
DOI:10.1177/01979183221131559