Global, regional, and national progress towards the 2030 global nutrition targets and forecasts to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

• Published in: The Lancet (British edition) 2025-12, Vol.404 (10471), p.2543-2583
• Main Authors: Abdulah, Deldar Morad, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME, Ahmed, Ali, Ajami, Marjan, Akbarialiabad, Hossein, Arkew, Mesay, Bagheri, Nasser, Balasubramanian, Madhan, Baltatu, Ovidiu Constantin, Baskaran, Pritish, Bekele, Alehegn, Bermudez, Amiel Nazer C, Bhaskar, Sonu, Bonakdar Hashemi, Milad, Cattaruzza, Maria Sofia, Chien, Ju-Huei, Chitheer, Abdulaal, Choudhari, Sonali Gajanan, Chukwu, Isaac Sunday, Columbus, Alyssa, Dandona, Rakhi, Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda, Doaei, Saeid, Dsouza, Haneil Larson, Edinur, Hisham Atan, Ekholuenetale, Michael, Elhadi, Muhammed, Etaee, Farshid, Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi Francis, Farinha, Carla Sofia e Sá, Farmer, Sam, Folayan, Morenike Oluwatoyin, Gerema, Urge, Getachew, Motuma Erena, Getawa, Solomon, Gholamalizadeh, Maryam, Gholamrezanezhad, Ali, Grivna, Michal, Gupta, Bhawna, Hagins, Hailey, Hossain, Sheikh Jamal, Humphrey, Kyle Matthew, Iravanpour, Farideh, Iwagami, Masao, Kauppila, Joonas H, Khammarnia, Mohammad, Khanmohammadi, Shaghayegh, Khatab, Khaled, Khubchandani, Jagdish, Kim, Gyu Ri, Kisa, Sezer, Korzh, Oleksii, Koulmane Laxminarayana, Sindhura Lakshmi, Krishan, Kewal, Krishnamoorthy, Vijay, Lee, Yo Han, Lim, Stephen S, Lo, Chun-Han, Lodha, Rakesh, Lorenzovici, László, Mahajan, Preetam Bhalchandra, Makris, Konstantinos Christos, Mathews, Elezebeth, Mirza, Moonis, Mougin, Vincent, Mulita, Francesk, Mustafa, Ghulam, Nayak, Biswa Prakash, Nguyen, Phuong The, Niazi, Robina Khan, Noor, Nurulamin M, Noubiap, Jean Jacques, Okello, Daniel Micheal, Okonji, Osaretin Christabel, Pereira, Gavin, Pereira, Marcos, Petermann-Rocha, Fanny Emily, Piracha, Zahra Zahid, Raghav, Pankaja, Rahim, Fakher, Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa, Ramasamy, Shakthi Kumaran, Rao, Sowmya J, Rashidi, Mohammad-Mahdi, Rickard, Jennifer, Sankararaman, Senthilkumar, Sarikhani, Yaser, Satpathy, Maheswar, Saya, Ganesh Kumar, Shahbandi, Ataollah, Shama, Adisu Tafari T, Shivarov, Velizar, Tabatabaeizadeh, Seyed-Amir, Ticoalu, Jansje Henny Vera, Touvier, Mathilde, Wassie, Molla Mesele, Werdecker, Andrea, Yaya, Sanni, Yehualashet, Sisay Shewasinad, Yuan, Chun-Wei
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Adolescent; Adult; Age; Anemia; Anemia - epidemiology; Bayesian analysis; Birth weight; Body weight; Breast feeding; Breast Feeding - statistics & numerical data; Breast Feeding - trends; Breastfeeding & lactation; Charities; Child, Preschool; Children; Children & youth; Childrens health; COVID-19; Disease; Educational attainment; Estimates; Female; Females; Fertility; Forecasting; Global Burden of Disease - trends; Global Health; Growth Disorders - epidemiology; Handicapped accessibility; Humans; Indicators; Industrialized nations; Infant; Infant, Low Birth Weight; Infant, Newborn; Low income groups; Male; Middle Aged; Nutrition; Nutritional Status; Overweight; Overweight - epidemiology; Pandemics; Performance evaluation; Prevalence; Regression models; Risk factors; Sociodemographics; Trends; Wasting Syndrome - epidemiology; Young Adult
• ISSN: 0140-6736; 1474-547X; 1474-547X
• DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01821-X

The six global nutrition targets (GNTs) related to low birthweight, exclusive breastfeeding, child growth (ie, wasting, stunting, and overweight), and anaemia among females of reproductive age were chosen by the World Health Assembly in 2012 as key indicators of maternal and child health, but there has yet to be a comprehensive report on progress for the period 2012 to 2021. We aimed to evaluate levels, trends, and observed-to-expected progress in prevalence and attributable burden from 2012 to 2021, with prevalence projections to 2050, in 204 countries and territories. The prevalence and attributable burden of each target indicator were estimated by age group, sex, and year in 204 countries and territories from 2012 to 2021 in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, the most comprehensive assessment of causes of death, disability, and risk factors to date. Country-specific relative performance to date was evaluated with a Bayesian meta-regression model that compares prevalence to expected values based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of societal development status. Target progress was forecasted from 2021 up to 2050 by modelling past trends with meta-regression using a combination of key quantities and then extrapolating future projections of those quantities. In 2021, a few countries had already met some of the GNTs: five for exclusive breastfeeding, four for stunting, 96 for child wasting, and three for child overweight, and none met the target for low birthweight or anaemia in females of reproductive age. Since 2012, the annualised rates of change (ARC) in the prevalence of child overweight increased in 201 countries and territories and ARC in the prevalence of anaemia in females of reproductive age decreased considerably in 26 countries. Between 2012 and 2021, SDI was strongly associated with indicator prevalence, apart from exclusive breastfeeding (|r-|=0·46–0·86). Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa had a decrease in the prevalence of multiple indicators that was more rapid than expected on the basis of SDI (the differences between observed and expected ARCs for child stunting and wasting were –0·5% and –1·3%, respectively). The ARC in the attributable burden of low birthweight, child stunting, and child wasting decreased faster than the ARC of the prevalence for each in most low-income and middle-income countries. In 2030, we project that 94 countries will meet one of the six targets, 21 c