Modelling hydrological consequences of climate change—Progress and challenges

The simulation of hydrological consequences of climate change has received increasing attention from the hydrology and land-surface modelling communities. There have been many studies of climate-change effects on hydrology and water resources which usually consist of three steps: (1) use of general...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Advances in atmospheric sciences 2005-11, Vol.22 (6), p.789-797
Main Authors: Xu, C-Y, Widen, E, Halldin, S
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Air pollution
Atmosfärs- och hydrosfärsvetenskap
Atmosphere and hydrosphere sciences
Climate
Climate change
Climate effects
Climate models
Climate studies
Computer simulation
Earth sciences
Environmental impact
Gases
General circulation models
Geovetenskap
Global climate
Greenhouse effect
Greenhouse gases
Hydrologi
Hydrologic models
Hydrologic regime
Hydrologic studies
hydrological models
Hydrology
Mathematical models
Modelling
NATURAL SCIENCES
NATURVETENSKAP
Regional climate models
Regional climates
regional scale
review
Statistical analysis
Statistical methods
water balance
Water resources
water-resources assessment
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Summary:The simulation of hydrological consequences of climate change has received increasing attention from the hydrology and land-surface modelling communities. There have been many studies of climate-change effects on hydrology and water resources which usually consist of three steps: (1) use of general circulation models (GCMs) to provide future global climate scenarios under the effect of increasing greenhouse gases, (2) use of downscaling techniques (both nested regional climate models, RCMs, and statistical methods) for "downscaling" the GCM output to the scales compatible with hydrological models, and (3) use of hydrologic models to simulate the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes at various scales. Great progress has been achieved in all three steps during the past few years, however, large uncertainties still exist in every stage of such study. This paper first reviews the present achievements in this field and then discusses the challenges for future studies of the hydrological impacts of climate change.
ISSN:0256-1530
1861-9533
1861-9533
DOI:10.1007/BF02918679