Estimating preferred departure times of road users in a large urban network

In order to reliably predict and assess effects of congestion charges and other congestion mitigating measures, a transportation model including dynamic assignment and departure time choice is important. This paper presents a transport model that incorporates departure time choice for analysis of ro...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Transportation (Dordrecht) 2018-05, Vol.45 (3), p.767-787
Main Authors: Kristoffersson, Ida, Engelson, Leonid
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
22 Road: Traffic control and traffic information
Airlines
Computer simulation
Congestion
Congestion charging
Departure time choice
Dynamic traffic assignment
Dynamics
Economic Geography
Economics
Economics and Finance
Engineering
Engineering Economics
Innovation/Technology Management
Logistics
Marketing
Mathematical model
Organization
Origin (traffic)
Preferred departure times
Probability
Regional/Spatial Science
Reverse engineering
Simulation
Time
Traffic
Traffic congestion
Traffic models
Transport Science
Transportation
Transportation modelling
Transportvetenskap
Travel
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Description
Summary:In order to reliably predict and assess effects of congestion charges and other congestion mitigating measures, a transportation model including dynamic assignment and departure time choice is important. This paper presents a transport model that incorporates departure time choice for analysis of road users’ temporal adjustments and uses a mesoscopic traffic simulation model to capture the dynamic nature of congestion. Departure time choice modelling relies heavily on car users’ preferred times of travel and without knowledge of these no meaningful conclusions can be drawn from application of the model. This paper shows how preferred times of travel can be consistently derived from field observations and conditional probabilities of departure times using a reverse engineering approach. It is also shown how aggregation of origin–destination pairs with similar preferred departure time profiles can solve the problem of negative solutions resulting from the reverse engineering equation. The method is shown to work well for large-scale applications and results are given for the network of Stockholm.
ISSN:0049-4488
1572-9435
1572-9435
DOI:10.1007/s11116-016-9750-2