Scenarios for sustainable futures beyond GDP growth 2050

• Published in: Futures : the journal of policy, planning and futures studies planning and futures studies, 2019-08, Vol.111, p.1-14
• Main Authors: Svenfelt, Åsa, Alfredsson, Eva C., Bradley, Karin, Fauré, Eléonore, Finnveden, Göran, Fuehrer, Paul, Gunnarsson-Östling, Ulrika, Isaksson, Karolina, Malmaeus, Mikael, Malmqvist, Tove, Skånberg, Kristian, Stigson, Peter, Aretun, Åsa, Buhr, Katarina, Hagbert, Pernilla, Öhlund, Erika
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: 10 Road: Transport, society, policy and planning; 15 Road: Environment; Alternative; Backcasting; Beyond growth; Decision making; Economic analysis; Economic development; Economic growth; Economics; Forecast; GDP; Gross Domestic Product; Growth rate; Land use; Multi-target; Scenarios; Sustainability; Sustainability targets
• ISSN: 0016-3287; 1873-6378; 1873-6378
• DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2019.05.001

•Sustainable development beyond focus on GDP growth needs to be explored.•Alternative a-growth futures, that fulfil sustainability targets are developed.•The scenarios presented explore four different sustainability approaches.•Illustrating options beyond economic growth enables discussion of alternatives. The idea of continued economic growth is increasingly questioned and critically analysed on the basis of its potential negative sustainability impact. Along with the critique, visions and strategies for alternative systems need also be brought onto the agenda. The aim of this paper is to present the qualitative content of scenarios that explore sustainability strategies for the Swedish society when economic growth is not seen as an end in itself, and instead the objective is other values/targets that society might wish to achieve. Multi-target backcasting scenarios are developed that illustrate future states in which four sustainability targets (climate, land use, participation, and resource security) are to be attained. The focus of these four scenarios is: 1) a Collaborative economy, 2) Local self-sufficiency, 3) Automation for quality of life, and 4) Circular economy in the welfare state. In the paper, we also present the process of the development of the scenarios, and feedback from stakeholders. Although the focus is on Sweden, the process and scenarios may also be relevant for other similar countries. The scenarios are discussed in terms of their relevance and their purpose, the fulfilment of the sustainability targets, and the multi-target approach.