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Evaluating the potential of ecological niche modelling as a component in marine non-indigenous species risk assessments

[Display omitted] •Ecological niche models can contribute to non-indigenous species risk assessments.•ENM can be used to determine habitat suitability and risk of natural spread for NIS.•ENM was used to predict the spread of 18 NIS along a shipping route.•We find high habitat suitability in the Skag...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Marine pollution bulletin 2015-08, Vol.97 (1-2), p.470-487
Main Authors: Leidenberger, Sonja, Obst, Matthias, Kulawik, Robert, Stelzer, Kerstin, Heyer, Karin, Hardisty, Alex, Bourlat, Sarah J.
Format: Article
Language:English
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Summary:[Display omitted] •Ecological niche models can contribute to non-indigenous species risk assessments.•ENM can be used to determine habitat suitability and risk of natural spread for NIS.•ENM was used to predict the spread of 18 NIS along a shipping route.•We find high habitat suitability in the Skagerrak, a transitional area for NIS.•Temperature and sea ice concentration determine habitat suitability for 61% of NIS. Marine biological invasions have increased with the development of global trading, causing the homogenization of communities and the decline of biodiversity. A main vector is ballast water exchange from shipping. This study evaluates the use of ecological niche modelling (ENM) to predict the spread of 18 non-indigenous species (NIS) along shipping routes and their potential habitat suitability (hot/cold spots) in the Baltic Sea and Northeast Atlantic. Results show that, contrary to current risk assessment methods, temperature and sea ice concentration determine habitat suitability for 61% of species, rather than salinity (11%). We show high habitat suitability for NIS in the Skagerrak and Kattegat, a transitional area for NIS entering or leaving the Baltic Sea. As many cases of NIS introduction in the marine environment are associated with shipping pathways, we explore how ENM can be used to provide valuable information on the potential spread of NIS for ballast water risk assessment.
ISSN:0025-326X
1879-3363
1879-3363
DOI:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2015.04.033