Drivers of change in China’s energy-related CO₂ emissions

• Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2020-01, Vol.117 (1), p.29-36
• Main Authors: Zheng, Xiaoqi, Lu, Yonglong, Yuan, Jingjing, Baninla, Yvette, Zhang, Sheng, Stenseth, Nils Chr, Hessen, Dag O., Tian, Hanqin, Obersteiner, Michael, Chen, Deliang
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Biological Sciences; Carbon; Carbon dioxide; Carbon dioxide emissions; Clean energy; Climate change; Climate change mitigation; CO2 emissions; Earth and Related Environmental Sciences; Economic development; Economic growth; Emissions; Emitters; Energy; energy consumption; Energy policy; GDP; Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap; Gross Domestic Product; Growth rate; PERSPECTIVE; policy change; Population growth; Residential energy; Social Sciences
• ISSN: 0027-8424; 1091-6490; 1091-6490
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1908513117

CO₂ emissions are of global concern because of climate change. China has become the largest CO₂ emitter in the world and presently accounts for 30% of global emissions. Here, we analyze the major drivers of energy-related CO₂ emissions in China from 1978 when the reform and opening-up policy was launched. We find that 1) there has been a 6-fold increase in energy-related CO₂ emissions, which was driven primarily (176%) by economic growth followed by population growth (16%), while the effects of energy intensity (−79%) and carbon intensity (−13%) slowed the growth of carbon emissions over most of this period; 2) energy-related CO₂ emissions are positively related to per capita gross domestic product (GDP), population growth rate, carbon intensity, and energy intensity; and 3) a portfolio of command-and-control policies affecting the drivers has altered the total emission trend. However, given the major role of China in global climate change mitigation, significant future reductions in China’s CO₂ emissions will require transformation toward low-carbon energy systems.