Fennoscandian tree-ring anatomy shows a warmer modern than medieval climate

• Published in: Nature (London) 2023-08, Vol.620 (7972), p.97-103
• Main Authors: Björklund, Jesper, Seftigen, Kristina, Stoffel, Markus, Fonti, Marina V., Kottlow, Sven, Frank, David C., Esper, Jan, Fonti, Patrick, Goosse, Hugues, Grudd, Håkan, Gunnarson, Björn E., Nievergelt, Daniel, Pellizzari, Elena, Carrer, Marco, von Arx, Georg
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: 21st Century; 704/106/694; 704/172; anatomy & histology; Anthropogenic factors; Calibration; Climate Change; Climate Change - history; Climate Change - statistics & numerical data; Climate Models; Datasets; Earth and Related Environmental Sciences; Future climates; Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap; Global Warming; Global Warming - history; Global Warming - statistics & numerical data; growth & development; history; History, 21st Century; History, Medieval; Humanities and Social Sciences; Internationality; Medieval; Medieval period; multidisciplinary; Pine trees; Pinus; Pinus - anatomy & histology; Pinus - growth & development; Proxies; Reproducibility of Results; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Simulation; statistics & numerical data; Temperature; Temperature variability; Tree rings; Trees; Trees - anatomy & histology; Trees - growth & development; Uncertainty; Warm seasons
• ISSN: 0028-0836; 1476-4687; 1476-4687
• DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06176-4

Earth system models and various climate proxy sources indicate global warming is unprecedented during at least the Common Era 1 . However, tree-ring proxies often estimate temperatures during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950–1250  ce ) that are similar to, or exceed, those recorded for the past century 2 , 3 , in contrast to simulation experiments at regional scales 4 . This not only calls into question the reliability of models and proxies but also contributes to uncertainty in future climate projections 5 . Here we show that the current climate of the Fennoscandian Peninsula is substantially warmer than that of the medieval period. This highlights the dominant role of anthropogenic forcing in climate warming even at the regional scale, thereby reconciling inconsistencies between reconstructions and model simulations. We used an annually resolved 1,170-year-long tree-ring record that relies exclusively on tracheid anatomical measurements from Pinus sylvestris trees, providing high-fidelity measurements of instrumental temperature variability during the warm season. We therefore call for the construction of more such millennia-long records to further improve our understanding and reduce uncertainties around historical and future climate change at inter-regional and eventually global scales. Annually resolved Fennoscandian tree-ring anatomy records show that the climate of the current industrial era is substantially warmer than that of the medieval period.