Drought variations in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau region since 1704 and their link to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

• Published in: Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology, 2023-11, Vol.630, p.111813, Article 111813
• Main Authors: Tang, Wanru, Fang, Keyan, Mei, Zepeng, Zhou, Feifei, Wu, Hao, Seftigen, Kristina, Cao, Xinguang, Dong, Zhipeng, Bai, Maowei, Chen, Yao
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation; Drought variation; Earlywood width; Earth and Related Environmental Sciences; Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap; Tibetan Plateau; Tree ring
• ISSN: 0031-0182; 1872-616X
• DOI: 10.1016/j.palaeo.2023.111813

Understanding the long-term history of drought in the Tibetan Plateau region is important to improve understanding of drought frequency in response to future global warming. Although the Tibetan Plateau has become generally wetter recently, the southeastern part of the Tibetan Plateau has become drier since the 2000s. To place this drying trend in a historical context, we conducted tree-ring studies for Abies spectabilis and Tsuga dumosa at three sites in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, and developed tree-ring width (TRW), earlywood width (EWW), and latewood width (LWW) chronologies to permit local drought reconstruction. Based on correlation between these tree-ring parameters and instrumental meteorological data, the EWW chronologies were identified as suitable variables for reconstructing the average April–July self-calibrating Palmer Drought Index (scPDSI). The reconstruction accounted for 45.86% of the variance in the instrumental record and allowed us to extend the drought record back to 1704 CE. Based on this new dataset, the driest interval was from 1907 to 1919 CE during which time agricultural production fell by about 70% according to written historical records, leading to severe famine. Our findings suggest that this early twentieth century drought was in phase with the previously known drought over the northern Daxing'an Mountains. However, the southeastern Tibetan Plateau drought occurred one decade earlier than the known widespread drought event in North China during the 1920s–1930s. We show that this spatial drought pattern may have been modulated by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. •The cause of drying trend in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau in the past two decades still remains unclear.•Differences in the response of tree ring width, earlywood and latewood width to climate.•The driest epoch was found in the 1910s–1920s in our reconstruction, which were in phase with the previously known drought over the northern Daxing’an Mountains, yet that this drought spell occurred one decade earlier than the known widespread drought event in North China during the 1920s–1930s.•The covarying drought pattern in the two remote areas (southeastern Tibetan Plateau and the northern Daxing’an Mountains) may be related to the AMO.•The linkage between the AMO and drought variations in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau became gradually strengthened after the 1870s, likely due to the expansion of the AMO amplitude. Moreover, the drying trend in the SETP