Marginal measures and causal effects using the relative survival framework

• Published in: International journal of epidemiology 2020-04, Vol.49 (2), p.619-628
• Main Authors: Syriopoulou, Elisavet, Rutherford, Mark J, Lambert, Paul C
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Adolescent; Adult; Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Causality; Colonic Neoplasms - epidemiology; Female; Humans; Male; Methods; Middle Aged; Probability; Prognosis; Social Class; Survival Analysis; Young Adult
• ISSN: 0300-5771; 1464-3685
• DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyz268

Abstract Background In population-based cancer survival studies, the event of interest is usually death due to cancer. However, other competing events may be present. Relative survival is a commonly used measure in cancer studies that circumvents problems caused by the inaccuracy of the cause of death information. A summary of the prognosis of the cancer population and potential differences between subgroups can be obtained using marginal estimates of relative survival. Methods We utilize regression standardization to obtain marginal estimates of interest in a relative survival framework. Such measures include the standardized relative survival, standardized all-cause survival and standardized crude probabilities of death. Contrasts of these can be formed to explore differences between exposure groups and under certain assumptions are interpreted as causal effects. The difference in standardized all-cause survival can also provide an estimate for the impact of eliminating cancer-related differences between exposure groups. The potential avoidable deaths after such hypothetical scenarios can also be estimated. To illustrate the methods we use the example of survival differences across socio-economic groups for colon cancer. Results Using relative survival, a range of marginal measures and contrasts were estimated. For these measures we either focused on cancer-related differences only or chose to incorporate both cancer and other cause differences. The impact of eliminating differences between groups was also estimated. Another useful way for quantifying that impact is the avoidable deaths under hypothetical scenarios. Conclusions Marginal estimates within the relative survival framework provide useful summary measures and can be applied to better understand differences across exposure groups.