How Much Should We Trust the Dictator’s GDP Growth Estimates?

I study the overstatement of economic growth in autocracies by comparing self-reported GDP figures to night-time light recorded by satellites from outer space. I show that the night-time-light elasticity of GDP is larger in authoritarian regimes, even accounting for differences in multiple country c...

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Published in:The Journal of political economy 2022-10, Vol.130 (10), p.2731-2769
Main Author: Martínez, Luis R.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Autocracy
Economic growth
Economic theory
Exaggeration
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
Manipulation
Outer space
Political economy
Satellites
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description I study the overstatement of economic growth in autocracies by comparing self-reported GDP figures to night-time light recorded by satellites from outer space. I show that the night-time-light elasticity of GDP is larger in authoritarian regimes, even accounting for differences in multiple country characteristics. This autocracy gradient in the elasticity is greater when the incentive to exaggerate economic growth is stronger or when the constraints on exaggeration are weaker. The results suggest that autocracies overstate yearly GDP growth by approximately 35%. Adjusting the data for manipulation leads to a more nuanced view on the recent economic success of autocracies.
doi_str_mv 10.1086/720458
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source EconLit s plnými texty; International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS); Business Source Ultimate; Worldwide Political Science Abstracts; University of Chicago Press Journals
subjects Autocracy
Economic growth
Economic theory
Exaggeration
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
Manipulation
Outer space
Political economy
Satellites
title How Much Should We Trust the Dictator’s GDP Growth Estimates?
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