Simulated effect of pig-population density on epidemic size and choice of control strategy for classical swine fever epidemics in The Netherlands

• Published in: Preventive veterinary medicine 2002-12, Vol.56 (2), p.141-163
• Main Authors: Mangen, M.-J.J, Nielen, M, Burrell, A.M
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Agrarische Bedrijfseconomie; Agrarische Economie en Plattelandsbeleid; Agricultural Economics and Rural Policy; Agricultural Economics and Rural Policy Group; Animal Husbandry; Animal transport; Animals; Carrier piglets; Classical Swine Fever - epidemiology; Classical Swine Fever - etiology; Classical swine fever epidemics; Classical swine fever virus - pathogenicity; Commerce; Disease Outbreaks - veterinary; Emergency vaccination; Female; Leerstoelgroep Agrarische economie en plattelandsbeleid; Male; MGS; Models, Theoretical; Netherlands - epidemiology; Pig-population density; Population Density; Preventive slaughter; Risk Factors; The Netherlands; Transportation
• ISSN: 0167-5877; 1873-1716
• DOI: 10.1016/S0167-5877(02)00155-1

We examined the importance of pig-population density in the area of an outbreak of classical swine fever (CSF) for the spread of the infection and the choice of control measures. A spatial, stochastic, dynamic epidemiological simulation model linked to a sector-level market-and-trade model for The Netherlands were used. Outbreaks in sparsely and densely populated areas were compared under four different control strategies and with two alternative trade assumptions. The obligatory control strategy required by current EU legislation was predicted to be enough to eradicate an epidemic starting in an area with sparse pig population. By contrast, additional control measures would be necessary if the outbreak began in an area with high pig density. The economic consequences of using preventive slaughter rather than emergency vaccination as an additional control measure depended strongly on the reactions of trading partners. Reducing the number of animal movements significantly reduced the size and length of epidemics in areas with high pig density. The phenomenon of carrier piglets was included in the model with realistic probabilities of infection by this route, but it made a negligible contribution to the spread of the infection.