Ecosystem Service Supply and Vulnerability to Global Change in Europe

• Published in: Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 2005-11, Vol.310 (5752), p.1333-1337
• Main Authors: Schröter, Dagmar, Cramer, Wolfgang, Leemans, Rik, Prentice, I. Colin, Araújo, Miguel B, Arnell, Nigel W, Bondeau, Alberte, Bugmann, Harald, Carter, Timothy R, Gracia, Carlos A, Vega-Leinert, Anne C. de la, Erhard, Markus, Ewert, Frank, Glendining, Margaret, House, Joanna I, Kankaanpää, Susanna, Klein, Richard J. T, Lavorel, Sandra, Lindner, Marcus, Metzger, Marc J, Meyer, Jeannette, Mitchell, Timothy D, Reginster, Isabelle, Rounsevell, Mark, Sabaté, Santi, Sitch, Stephen, Smith, Ben, Smith, Jo, Smith, Pete, Sykes, Martin T, Thonicke, Kirsten, Thuiller, Wilfried, Tuck, Gill, Zaehle, Sönke, Zierl, Bärbel
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: afforestation; agricultural land; Agriculture; agroecosystems; Analysis; Animal, plant and microbial ecology; Applied ecology; Biodiversity; Biological and medical sciences; Brackish; Carbon; Case Studies; Climate; Climate change; Climate models; Climatic changes; Conservation of Natural Resources; Conservation, protection and management of environment and wildlife; Crops, Agricultural; Dehydration; Earth and Related Environmental Sciences; Ecosystem; Ecosystem services; Ecosystems; Environment; Environment and Society; Environmental aspects; Environmental degradation: ecosystems survey and restoration; environmental impact; Environmental Sciences; Europe; forest ecosystems; Forest soils; Forestry research; forests; Freshwater; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; future scenarios; Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap; Global climate models; Greenhouse Effect; Humans; Land use; land use change; Marine; Models, Statistical; Models, Theoretical; Natural Sciences; Naturgeografi; Naturvetenskap; Physical Geography; Protection and preservation; Social conditions & trends; Socioeconomic Factors; Socioeconomics; Sustainable agriculture; Trees - growth & development; Union Members; Urban Population; Water; Water Supply; watershed hydrology; Wood
• ISSN: 0036-8075; 1095-9203; 1095-9203
• DOI: 10.1126/science.1115233

Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, "surplus land" for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.