Mapping the basic reproduction number ( R0 ) for vector-borne diseases: A case study on bluetongue virus

Abstract Geographical maps indicating the value of the basic reproduction number, R0 , can be used to identify areas of higher risk for an outbreak after an introduction. We develop a methodology to create R0 maps for vector-borne diseases, using bluetongue virus as a case study. This method provide...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Epidemics 2009-09, Vol.1 (3), p.153-161
Main Authors: Hartemink, N.A, Purse, B.V, Meiswinkel, R, Brown, H.E, de Koeijer, A, Elbers, A.R.W, Boender, G.-J, Rogers, D.J, Heesterbeek, J.A.P
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animals
Bluetongue - epidemiology
Bluetongue - transmission
Bluetongue virus - growth & development
Bluetongue virus - physiology
Cattle
Cattle Diseases - epidemiology
Cattle Diseases - transmission
Cattle Diseases - virology
Ceratopogonidae - virology
Climate change
CVI - Divisie Virologie
CVI - Division Virology
Ecosystem
Emerging diseases
Epidemiology
Fourier Analysis
Geographic Information Systems
Infectious Disease
Infectious diseases
Insect Vectors - virology
Internal Medicine
Maps as Topic
Netherlands - epidemiology
Risk Factors
Risk maps
Seasons
Sheep
WIAS
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Summary:Abstract Geographical maps indicating the value of the basic reproduction number, R0 , can be used to identify areas of higher risk for an outbreak after an introduction. We develop a methodology to create R0 maps for vector-borne diseases, using bluetongue virus as a case study. This method provides a tool for gauging the extent of environmental effects on disease emergence. The method involves integrating vector-abundance data with statistical approaches to predict abundance from satellite imagery and with the biologically mechanistic modelling that underlies R0 . We illustrate the method with three applications for bluetongue virus in the Netherlands: 1) a simple R0 map for the situation in September 2006, 2) species-specific R0 maps based on satellite-data derived predictions, and 3) monthly R0 maps throughout the year. These applications ought to be considered as a proof-of-principle and illustrations of the methods described, rather than as ready-to-use risk maps. Altogether, this is a first step towards an integrative method to predict risk of establishment of diseases based on mathematical modelling combined with a geographic information system that may comprise climatic variables, landscape features, land use, and other relevant factors determining the risk of establishment for bluetongue as well as of other emerging vector-borne diseases.
ISSN:1755-4365
1878-0067
DOI:10.1016/j.epidem.2009.05.004