Regional impact assessment of land use scenarios in developing countries using the FoPIA approach: Findings from five case studies

• Published in: Journal of environmental management 2013-09, Vol.127, p.S56-S64
• Main Authors: König, Hannes Jochen, Uthes, Sandra, Schuler, Johannes, Zhen, Lin, Purushothaman, Seema, Suarma, Utia, Sghaier, Mongi, Makokha, Stella, Helming, Katharina, Sieber, Stefan, Chen, Le, Brouwer, Floor, Morris, Jake, Wiggering, Hubert
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: (Ex-ante) impact assessment; afforestation; Animal, plant and microbial ecology; Applied ecology; assessment-tool; Biological and medical sciences; case studies; conservation; Conservation of Natural Resources; Conservation, protection and management of environment and wildlife; Developing Countries; dynamics; Economic development; Environment and sustainable development; Environmental Monitoring - methods; Environmental policy; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; General aspects; Indicators; integrated assessment; issues and policy; kenya; land degradation; Land use change; Land use planning; LDCs; learning; organic production; planning; population growth; privatization; Scenario study; science; social problems; soil erosion; soil water; Stakeholder participation; stakeholders; Sustainable development; tunisia; water conservation; watersheds
• ISSN: 0301-4797; 1095-8630
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.10.021

The impact of land use changes on sustainable development is of increasing interest in many regions of the world. This study aimed to test the transferability of the Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA), which was originally developed in the European context, to developing countries, in which lack of data often prevents the use of data-driven impact assessment methods. The core aspect of FoPIA is the stakeholder-based assessment of alternative land use scenarios. Scenario impacts on regional sustainability are assessed by using a set of nine regional land use functions (LUFs), which equally cover the economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainability. The cases analysed in this study include (1) the alternative spatial planning policies around the Merapi volcano and surrounding areas of Yogyakarta City, Indonesia; (2) the large-scale afforestation of agricultural areas to reduce soil erosion in Guyuan, China; (3) the expansion of soil and water conservation measures in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia; (4) the agricultural intensification and the potential for organic agriculture in Bijapur, India; and (5) the land degradation and land conflicts resulting from land division and privatisation in Narok, Kenya. All five regions are characterised by population growth, partially combined with considerable economic development, environmental degradation problems and social conflicts. Implications of the regional scenario impacts as well as methodological aspects are discussed. Overall, FoPIA proved to be a useful tool for diagnosing regional human–environment interactions and for supporting the communication and social learning process among different stakeholder groups. ► We conduct impact assessment of land use scenarios in developing countries. ► Stakeholder and expert knowledge is used to assess regional sustainability impacts. ► Land use functions facilitate the integration of different sustainability aspects. ► We illustrate sustainability trade-offs to support local decision making. ► FoPIA is useful to complement analytical tools with qualitative knowledge.