Economic consequences of increased bioenergy demand

Although wind, hydro and solar are the most discussed sources of renewable energy, countries will need to rely much more on biomass if they are to meet renewable energy targets. In this study, a global forest trade model is used to examine the global effects of expanded demand for wood pellets fired...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Forestry chronicle 2014-10, Vol.90 (5), p.636-642
Main Authors: Johnston, Craig M. T, Van Kooten, G. Cornelis
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
bioenergy
biomass
electricity
fiberboards
forests
impacts
issues and policy
lumber
market
particleboards
pellets
plywood
power plants
prices
pulp
trade
wood
wood energy-consumption
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Summary:Although wind, hydro and solar are the most discussed sources of renewable energy, countries will need to rely much more on biomass if they are to meet renewable energy targets. In this study, a global forest trade model is used to examine the global effects of expanded demand for wood pellets fired with coal in power plants. Positive mathematical programming is used to calibrate the model to 2011 bilateral trade flows. To assess the impact of increased demand for wood pellets on global forest products, we consider a scenario where demand for wood pellets doubles. Findings indicate that production of lumber and plywood is likely to increase in most of the 20 model regions, but outputs of fibreboard, particleboard and pulp will decline as these products must compete with wood pellets for residual fibre. Ultimately, policies promoting aggressive renewable energy targets cause wood pellet prices to more than double in our scenarios, which could increase the cost of generating electricity to such an extent that, in some regions, electricity producers will continue to use fossil fuels as their primary fuel, while some others might find it worthwhile to rely more on nuclear energy for base load power.
ISSN:0015-7546
1499-9315
DOI:10.5558/tfc2014-128