The role of rainfed agriculture in securing food production in the Nile Basin

• Published in: Environmental science & policy 2016-07, Vol.61, p.14-23
• Main Authors: Siderius, C., Van Walsum, P.E.V., Roest, C.W.J., Smit, A.A.M.F.R., Hellegers, P.J.G.J., Kabat, P., Van Ierland, E.C.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Food security; Nile basin; Rainfed agriculture; Water allocations; Water dispute
• ISSN: 1462-9011; 1873-6416
• DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2016.03.007

•Future food security in the Nile Basin will not be met by reallocation of water.•Our hydro-economic model shows the vast forgotten potential of rainfed agriculture.•These agricultural lands lie in regions destabilized by recent war and conflict.•Stabilization and trade rather than unilateral expansion of irrigation is needed.•This asks for a more integrative approach to basin governance and investments. A better use of land and water resources will be necessary to meet the increasing demand for food in the Nile basin. Using a hydro-economic model along the storyline of three future political cooperation scenarios, we show that the future of food production in the Basin lies not in the expansion of intensively irrigated areas and the disputed reallocation of water, but in utilizing the vast forgotten potential of rainfed agriculture in the upstream interior, with supplemental irrigation where needed. Our results indicate that rainfed agriculture can cover more than 75% of the needed increase in food production by the year 2025. Many of the most suitable regions for rainfed agriculture in the Nile basin, however, have been destabilized by recent war and civil unrest. Stabilizing those regions and strengthening intra-basin cooperation via food trade seem to be better strategies than unilateral expansion of upstream irrigation, as the latter will reduce hydropower generation and relocate, rather than increase, food production.