Analysis of drought and vulnerability in the North Darfur region of Sudan

• Published in: Land degradation & development 2018-12, Vol.29 (12), p.4424-4438
• Main Authors: Mohmmed, Alnail, Zhang, Ke, Kabenge, Martin, Keesstra, Saskia, Cerdà, Artemi, Reuben, Makomere, Elbashier, Mohammed M.A., Dalson, Twecan, Ali, Albashir A.S.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Climate change; Crop yield; Crops; Deserts; Drought; Drought index; Environmental monitoring; Environmental risk; Land degradation; Land use; meteorology; Mitigation; Moisture content; North Darfur region; Poverty; Rainfall; remote sensing; Risk assessment; Risk reduction; Sensitivity analysis; Socioeconomic factors; Soil conditions; Soil moisture; Spatial distribution; Standardized precipitation index; Temporal distribution; vulnerability index; Water content; Water shortages
• ISSN: 1085-3278; 1099-145X
• DOI: 10.1002/ldr.3180

North Darfur of Sudan is located on the edge of the Sahara Desert and endures frequent droughts due to water shortages and high summer temperatures. Monitoring and understanding drought characteristics are essential for integrated drought risk mitigation and prevetion of land degradation. This study evaluates drought conditions in North Darfur by analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of drought using three drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index, Vegetation Condition Index, and Soil Moisture Content Index) and their combined drought index (CDI) from 2004 to 2013. Biophysical and socioeconomic indicators are further used to measure vulnerability to drought risk and its three components (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) through a comprehensive risk assessment framework. The results show that most of North Darfur has experienced prolonged droughts during the study period, especially from 2007 to 2011. There is also a significant correlation between the monsoon season CDI and annual crop yield anomaly. The results confirm the validity of the CDI index, which provides a comprehensive description of the drought situation by combing four drought indices quantifying different drought aspects. The vulnerability results show that the majority of this region is highly exposed and sensitive to drought risks. In particular, the northern zone of the region is highly vulnerable, which is categorized by less‐crop diversity, higher land degradation, frequent droughts, and high‐poverty levels. This study provides valuable information for coping with climate change‐induced drought risk in this region and demonstrates that there is still a large room for enhancing the adaptation capacity in this region.