Modeling water quality in the Anthropocene: directions for the next-generation aquatic ecosystem models

• Published in: Current opinion in environmental sustainability 2019-02, Vol.36, p.85-95
• Main Authors: Mooij, Wolf M, van Wijk, Dianneke, Beusen, Arthur HW, Brederveld, Robert J, Chang, Manqi, Cobben, Marleen MP, DeAngelis, Don L, Downing, Andrea S, Green, Pamela, Gsell, Alena S, Huttunen, Inese, Janse, Jan H, Janssen, Annette BG, Hengeveld, Geerten M, Kong, Xiangzhen, Kramer, Lilith, Kuiper, Jan J, Langan, Simon J, Nolet, Bart A, Nuijten, Rascha JM, Strokal, Maryna, Troost, Tineke A, van Dam, Anne A, Teurlincx, Sven
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management; Aquatische Ecologie en Waterkwaliteitsbeheer; Biometris; Biometris (PPO/PRI); Bos- en Natuurbeleid; Forest and Nature Conservation Policy; Leerstoelgroep Aquatische ecologie en waterkwaliteitsbeheer; Leerstoelgroep Bos- en natuurbeleid; PE&RC; Water Systems and Global Change; WIMEK
• ISSN: 1877-3435; 1877-3443; 1877-3443
• DOI: 10.1016/j.cosust.2018.10.012

•We present a research agenda to enhance water quality modeling in the Anthropocene.•We review adaptive responses in organisms and ecosystems to global environmental change.•We focus on eco-evolutionary, novel ecosystem and social-ecological dynamics.•These dynamics act at different integration levels and different time scales.•Lake Victoria is an iconic example of an evolving novel social-ecological system. “Everything changes and nothing stands still” (Heraclitus). Here we review three major improvements to freshwater aquatic ecosystem models — and ecological models in general — as water quality scenario analysis tools towards a sustainable future. To tackle the rapid and deeply connected dynamics characteristic of the Anthropocene, we argue for the inclusion of eco-evolutionary, novel ecosystem and social-ecological dynamics. These dynamics arise from adaptive responses in organisms and ecosystems to global environmental change and act at different integration levels and different time scales. We provide reasons and means to incorporate each improvement into aquatic ecosystem models. Throughout this study we refer to Lake Victoria as a microcosm of the evolving novel social-ecological systems of the Anthropocene. The Lake Victoria case clearly shows how interlinked eco-evolutionary, novel ecosystem and social-ecological dynamics are, and demonstrates the need for transdisciplinary research approaches towards global sustainability.