Scenario modeling for conservation management in the En Afeq Nature Reserve, Israel

Conservation management has significant gaps between (1) collection and storage of biological data, (2) data analysis, and (3) application of results. In order to improve management decision‐making, it is necessary to bridge these gaps. One of the most promising approaches uses computer‐based decisi...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Applied vegetation science 1999-05, Vol.2 (1), p.125-130
Main Authors: Olsvig‐Whittaker, Linda, Schipper, Piet, Heitkonig, Ignas, Magal, Yonat, Ortal, Reuven, Shy, Eyal, Sýkora, Karle
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agricultural management
conservation areas
decision support systems
Environmental conservation
environmental factors
expert opinion
Geographic Information System
geology
Grazing
Hydrologic data
Hydrological modeling
Hydrology
Landscape ecology
Landscapes
Leerstoelgroep Resource Ecology
Modeling
monitoring
Nature conservation
Nature Conservation and Plant Ecology
Natuurbeheer en Plantenecologie
PE&RC
Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation
Plantenecologie en Natuurbeheer
prediction
Resource Ecology
Scenario
Vegetation
Wetland
Wetland conservation
Wetlands
WIMEK
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Summary:Conservation management has significant gaps between (1) collection and storage of biological data, (2) data analysis, and (3) application of results. In order to improve management decision‐making, it is necessary to bridge these gaps. One of the most promising approaches uses computer‐based decision support systems (DSS): interactive models of the system in question—for example, a nature reserve. One kind of DSS is scenario modeling: spatially‐based models which (1) use expert opinion and data on vegetation, geology, hydrology, and management, (2) to project changes in landscape through time, (3) on the basis of changes in driving environmental factors. Scenario models are essentially graphic hypotheses, predicting changes in landscape with a specified change in driving factors, which can then be verified or falsified by monitoring. This paper presents an application of this approach to an Israeli nature reserve, the En Afeq Reserve in western Galilee. Our project tests the possibility of improving Israeli conservation management by using methods now standard for nature reserves in the Netherlands.
ISSN:1402-2001
1654-109X
DOI:10.2307/1478889