Assessing the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the water＇ source area of Baiyangdian Lake

• Published in: Journal of geographical sciences 2012-10, Vol.22 (5), p.895-905
• Main Authors: Hu, Shanshan, Liu, Changming, Zheng, Hongxing, Wang, Zhonggen, Yu, Jingjie
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Aquatic ecosystems; Asia; Bgi / Prodig; China; Climate effects; Climate variability; Earth and Environmental Science; Geographical Information Systems/Cartography; Geography; Lakes; Nature Conservation; Physical Geography; Remote Sensing/Photogrammetry; River catchments; Stream discharge; Stream flow; Water balance; Water demand; Watershed management; 人类活动; 南水北调中线水源区; 年径流; 影响评估; 最小生态需水量; 气候变化; 水平衡; 白洋淀流域
• ISSN: 1009-637X; 1861-9568
• DOI: 10.1007/s11442-012-0971-9

As the largest wetland in the North China Plain （NCP）, the Baiyangdian Lake plays an important role in maintaining water balance and ecological health of NCP. Ir the past few decades, the decreasing streamflow in the Baiyangdian Basin associated with climate vari- ability and human activities has caused a series of water and eco-environmer,tal issues. In this study, we quantified the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the water source area of the Baiyangdian Lake, based on analyses of hydrologic changes of the upper Tanghe river catchment （a sub-basin of the Baiyangdian Basin） from 1960 to 2008. Climate elasticity method and hydrological modeling method were used to distinguish the effects of climate variability and human activities. The results showed that the annual streamflow decreased significantly （P〉0.05） by 1.7 mm/a and an abrupt change was identi- fied around the year 1980. The quantification results indicated that climate variations ac- counted for 38%-40% of decreased streamflow, while human activities accounted for 60%--62%. Therefore, the effect of human activities played a dominant role on the decline of the streamflow in the water source area of the Baiyangdian Lake. To keep the ecosystem health of the Baiyangdian Lake, we suggest that minimum ecological water demand and in- tegrated watershed management should be guaranteed in the future.