ENSO hindcast skill of the IAP-DecPreS near-term climate prediction system:comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization

本文使用中国科学院大气物理研究所近期气候预测系统IAP-DecPreS,评估了全场初始化和异常场初始化对ENSO的预测技巧.结果表明:采用异常场初始化方法对典型ENSO和El Ni(n)oModoki的预报技巧均优于采用全场初始化方法的预报技巧.采用异常场初始化方法的回报结果能超前10个月回报强ENSO事件,超前4-7个月回报相对较弱的ENSO事件.采用异常场初始化方法对El Ni(n)o Modoki和典型ENSO的预报技巧相当.此外,采用异常场初始化方法的回报结果能超前1-4个月模拟出典型ENSO和El Ni(n)o Modoki的冬季海表面温度、降水以及大气环流异常的主要空间分布特征....

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Published in:大气和海洋科学快报（英文版） 2018, Vol.11 (1), p.54-62
Main Authors: SUN Qian, WU Bo, ZHOU Tian-Jun, YAN Zi-Xiang
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creator SUN Qian
WU Bo
ZHOU Tian-Jun
YAN Zi-Xiang
description 本文使用中国科学院大气物理研究所近期气候预测系统IAP-DecPreS,评估了全场初始化和异常场初始化对ENSO的预测技巧.结果表明:采用异常场初始化方法对典型ENSO和El Ni(n)oModoki的预报技巧均优于采用全场初始化方法的预报技巧.采用异常场初始化方法的回报结果能超前10个月回报强ENSO事件,超前4-7个月回报相对较弱的ENSO事件.采用异常场初始化方法对El Ni(n)o Modoki和典型ENSO的预报技巧相当.此外,采用异常场初始化方法的回报结果能超前1-4个月模拟出典型ENSO和El Ni(n)o Modoki的冬季海表面温度、降水以及大气环流异常的主要空间分布特征.
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title ENSO hindcast skill of the IAP-DecPreS near-term climate prediction system:comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization
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