The Effect of Three-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation of QuikSCAT Data on the Numerical Simulation of Typhoon Track and Intensity

• Published in: Advances in atmospheric sciences 2005-07, Vol.22 (4), p.534-544
• Main Author: 曾智华 端义宏 梁旭东 马雷鸣 陈仲良
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Atmospheric research; Data assimilation; Data collection; Hurricanes; Mathematical models; Numerical simulations; Predictions; Simulation; Typhoons; Wind; Wind data; Winds; 同化作用; 数值模拟
• ISSN: 0256-1530; 1861-9533
• DOI: 10.1007/bf02918486

In this paper, the three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme (3DVAR) in the mesoscalemod el version 5 (MM5) of the US Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research is used to study the effect of assimilating the sea-wind data from QuikSCAT on the prediction of typhoon track and intensity. The case of Typhoon Dujuan (2003) is first tested and the results show appreciable improvements. Twelve other cases in 2003 are then evaluated. The assimilation of the QuikSCAT data produces significant impacts on the structure of Dujuan in terms of the horizontal and vertical winds, sealevel pressure and temperature at the initial time. With the assimilation, the 24-h (48-h) track prediction of 11 (10) out of the 12 typhoons is improved. The 24-h (48-h) prediction of typhoon intensity is also improved in 10 (9) of the 12 cases. These experiments therefore demonstrate that assimilation of the QuikSCAT sea-wind data can increase the accuracy of typhoon track and intensity predictions through modification of the initial fields associated with the typhoon.