Modelling the impact of sea-level rise on urban flood probability in SE China

Urban drainage systems in coastal cities in SE China are characterized by often complex canal and sluice-gate systems that are designed to safely drain pluvial flooding whilst preventing tidal inundation. However, the risk of coastal flooding in the region is expected to increase over the next 50–10...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Di xue qian yuan. 2019-03, Vol.10 (2), p.363-372
Main Authors: Griffiths, James Andrew, Zhu, Fangfang, Chan, Faith Ka Shun, Higgitt, David Laurence
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Coastal
Drainage systems
Flood management
Flooding
Floods
One dimensional models
Probability
Rainfall
Scenarios
Sea level
Sluice gates
Typhoon
Urban areas
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Summary:Urban drainage systems in coastal cities in SE China are characterized by often complex canal and sluice-gate systems that are designed to safely drain pluvial flooding whilst preventing tidal inundation. However, the risk of coastal flooding in the region is expected to increase over the next 50–100 years, as urban areas continue to expand and sea-levels are expected to rise. To assess the impact of projected sea-level rise on this type of urban drainage system, a one-dimensional model and decision support tool was developed. The model indicated that although sea-level rise represents a significant challenge, flood probability will continue to be most influenced by rainfall. Events that are significant enough to cause flooding will most likely be minimally impacted by changes to the tidal frame. However, it was found that a sea-level rise of up to 1.2 m by 2010 would result in increased drainage times and higher volumes of over-topping when flooding occurs. [Display omitted] •A parsimonious model for coastal urban flood-risk in SE China.•Urbanization, sea-level rise and flood management can be represented.•Results indicated that sea-level rise would increase magnitude and duration of Typhoon induced flood events, but limited impact on flood probability.
ISSN:1674-9871
2588-9192
DOI:10.1016/j.gsf.2018.02.012