INTEGRATING COMPLEX SYSTEM DYNAMICS OF PANDEMIC INFLUENZA WITH A MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION MAKING MODEL FOR EVALUATING PUBLIC HEALTH STRATEGIES

Recent developments in computational sciences and computer modeling have allowed emergency preparedness exercises to include simulation models as supporting tools. These simulation models are generally built for predicting temporal and geographic patterns of disease spread. However sole use of simul...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of systems science and systems engineering 2013-09, Vol.22 (3), p.319-339
Main Author: Araz, Ozgur M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analytic hierarchy process
Applied sciences
Biological and medical sciences
Complex systems
Complexity
Computer science
control theory
systems
Decision analysis
Decision support systems
Decision theory. Utility theory
Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods
Engineering
Epidemiology
Exact sciences and technology
General aspects
Information systems. Data bases
Medical sciences
Memory organisation. Data processing
Multiple criterion
Operational research and scientific management
Operational research. Management science
Operations Research/Decision Theory
Public health
Public health. Hygiene
Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine
Simulation models
Software
System dynamics
Theoretical computing
仿真模型
公众健康
决策支持系统
多准则决策
模型评估
流感
系统动力学模型
计算机模拟
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Summary:Recent developments in computational sciences and computer modeling have allowed emergency preparedness exercises to include simulation models as supporting tools. These simulation models are generally built for predicting temporal and geographic patterns of disease spread. However sole use of simulation models in exercise design falls short in terms of incorporating policy decision makers＇ preferences into decision-making processes. In this paper, a general framework for exercising public health preparedness plans with a decision support system is presented to integrate estimation of key epidemiological parameters with a system dynamics model of an outbreak. A multi-criteria decision making framework, an Analytical Hierarchy Process model, is then developed and integrated with the simulation model to help public health policy makers prioritize their response goals and evaluate mitigation strategies in a table-top exercise environment.
ISSN:1004-3756
1861-9576
DOI:10.1007/s11518-013-5220-y