Prediction of the Impacts of Climate Change on the Geographical Distribution of Dysentery in Iran

Dysentery is a water- and food-borne infectious disease and its incidence is sensitive to climate change. Although the impact of climate change on dysentery is being studied in specific areas, a study in Iran is lacking. In this study, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were used to predict the prevalenc...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Chinese journal of urban and environmental studies (Print) 2022-09, Vol.10 (3)
Main Authors: BAHRAMI, Giti, SAJADI, Homeira, RAFIEE, Hassan, NOROUZI, Mehdi, SHAKIBA, Alireza
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adaptation
Bioclimatology
Biometeorology
Climate adaptation
Climate change
Dependent variables
Disease
Dysentery
Environmental impact
gastrointestinal disease
Geographical distribution
Geographically Weighted Regression
health
Health risks
Independent variables
Infectious diseases
Mitigation
Regional variations
Secondary analysis
Variables
Vulnerability
Waterborne diseases
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Summary:Dysentery is a water- and food-borne infectious disease and its incidence is sensitive to climate change. Although the impact of climate change on dysentery is being studied in specific areas, a study in Iran is lacking. In this study, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were used to predict the prevalence of dysentery in Iran between 2050 and 2070. This study is a secondary analysis using Geographically Weighted Regression, and 273 cities of Iran were analyzed between March 2011 and March 2017. Bioclimate variables were used as independent variables. Ecological data about the prevalence and incidence of dysentery, which were collected between 2011 and 2017, were used as the dependent variables. The result shows the incidence of dysentery is significantly associated with bioclimate change exposure, in 2050 and 2070, based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Our findings showed that in the absence of adaptation of the population, an increase in the risk of bioclimate-related diseases is expected by around 95.6% in the mid-century compared with the beginning of the century with regional variations. Based on these findings, the geographical distribution of the disease will also change. In 2050, the pattern of disease distribution would be changed, and the north of Iran will be included in the vulnerable regions. In 2070, the southeastern and northern parts of Iran will have the most vulnerability to climate change. Our study contributes important knowledge to this perspective by providing insightful findings and pieces of evidence for climate change adaptation and mitigation.
ISSN:2345-7481
2345-752X
DOI:10.1142/S234574812250018X