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Exploring temporal instability effects on bicyclist injury severities determinants for intersection and non-intersection-related crashes
Cycling is a sustainable and healthy mode of transportation with direct links to reducing traffic congestion, lowering greenhouse gas emissions, and improving air quality. However, from a safety perspective, bicyclists represent a risky road user group with a higher likelihood of sustaining severe i...
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| Format: | Default Article |
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2023
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/2134/25112105.v1 |
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| _version_ | 1818165012114440192 |
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| author | Nawaf Alnawmasi Yasir Ali Shamsunnahar Yasmin |
| author_facet | Nawaf Alnawmasi Yasir Ali Shamsunnahar Yasmin |
| author_sort | Nawaf Alnawmasi (17872571) |
| collection | Figshare |
| description | Cycling is a sustainable and healthy mode of transportation with direct links to reducing traffic congestion, lowering greenhouse gas emissions, and improving air quality. However, from a safety perspective, bicyclists represent a risky road user group with a higher likelihood of sustaining severe injuries when involved in vehicle crashes. With various determinants known to affect bicyclist injury severity and vary across locations, this study investigates the factors affecting bicyclist injury severity and temporal instability, considering the location of crashes. More specifically, the objective of this study is to understand differences in injury severities of intersection and non-intersection-related single-bicycle-vehicle crashes using four year crash data from the state of Florida. Random parameters logit models with heterogeneity in the means and variances are developed to model bicyclist injury severity outcomes (no injury, minor injury, and severe injury) for intersection and non-intersection crashes. Several variables affecting injury severities are considered in model estimation, including weather, roadway, vehicle, driver, and bicyclist characteristics. The temporal stability of the model parameters is assessed for different locations and years using a series of likelihood ratio tests. Results indicate that the determinants of bicyclist injury severities change over time and location, resulting in different injury severities of bicyclists, with non-intersection crashes consistently resulting in more severe bicyclist injuries. Using a simulation-based out-of-sample approach, predictions are made to understand the benefits of replicating driving behaviour and facilities similar to intersections for non-intersection locations, which could benefit in reducing bicyclist injury severity probabilities. |
| format | Default Article |
| id | rr-article-25112105 |
| institution | Loughborough University |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| record_format | Figshare |
| spelling | rr-article-251121052023-10-17T00:00:00Z Exploring temporal instability effects on bicyclist injury severities determinants for intersection and non-intersection-related crashes Nawaf Alnawmasi (17872571) Yasir Ali (13768642) Shamsunnahar Yasmin (11237904) Transportation, logistics and supply chains Health sciences Public health Psychology Applied and developmental psychology Bicyclist injury Random parameters logit Temporal instability Out-of-sample prediction Intersections Non-intersections Cycling is a sustainable and healthy mode of transportation with direct links to reducing traffic congestion, lowering greenhouse gas emissions, and improving air quality. However, from a safety perspective, bicyclists represent a risky road user group with a higher likelihood of sustaining severe injuries when involved in vehicle crashes. With various determinants known to affect bicyclist injury severity and vary across locations, this study investigates the factors affecting bicyclist injury severity and temporal instability, considering the location of crashes. More specifically, the objective of this study is to understand differences in injury severities of intersection and non-intersection-related single-bicycle-vehicle crashes using four year crash data from the state of Florida. Random parameters logit models with heterogeneity in the means and variances are developed to model bicyclist injury severity outcomes (no injury, minor injury, and severe injury) for intersection and non-intersection crashes. Several variables affecting injury severities are considered in model estimation, including weather, roadway, vehicle, driver, and bicyclist characteristics. The temporal stability of the model parameters is assessed for different locations and years using a series of likelihood ratio tests. Results indicate that the determinants of bicyclist injury severities change over time and location, resulting in different injury severities of bicyclists, with non-intersection crashes consistently resulting in more severe bicyclist injuries. Using a simulation-based out-of-sample approach, predictions are made to understand the benefits of replicating driving behaviour and facilities similar to intersections for non-intersection locations, which could benefit in reducing bicyclist injury severity probabilities.<p></p> 2023-10-17T00:00:00Z Text Journal contribution 2134/25112105.v1 https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Exploring_temporal_instability_effects_on_bicyclist_injury_severities_determinants_for_intersection_and_non-intersection-related_crashes/25112105 CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 |
| spellingShingle | Transportation, logistics and supply chains Health sciences Public health Psychology Applied and developmental psychology Bicyclist injury Random parameters logit Temporal instability Out-of-sample prediction Intersections Non-intersections Nawaf Alnawmasi Yasir Ali Shamsunnahar Yasmin Exploring temporal instability effects on bicyclist injury severities determinants for intersection and non-intersection-related crashes |
| title | Exploring temporal instability effects on bicyclist injury severities determinants for intersection and non-intersection-related crashes |
| title_full | Exploring temporal instability effects on bicyclist injury severities determinants for intersection and non-intersection-related crashes |
| title_fullStr | Exploring temporal instability effects on bicyclist injury severities determinants for intersection and non-intersection-related crashes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Exploring temporal instability effects on bicyclist injury severities determinants for intersection and non-intersection-related crashes |
| title_short | Exploring temporal instability effects on bicyclist injury severities determinants for intersection and non-intersection-related crashes |
| title_sort | exploring temporal instability effects on bicyclist injury severities determinants for intersection and non-intersection-related crashes |
| topic | Transportation, logistics and supply chains Health sciences Public health Psychology Applied and developmental psychology Bicyclist injury Random parameters logit Temporal instability Out-of-sample prediction Intersections Non-intersections |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/2134/25112105.v1 |